Season Over: What’s Next?

Posted on May 15, 2014 | 1 comment

Sadly, the Brooklyn Nets season ended in the second round of the playoffs, with a 5 game loss to the Miami Heat. The question now: how do the Nets get better. Let’s tackle it.

The Current Roster 

PG: Deron Williams, Jorge Gutierrez, Marquis Teague.

SG: Marcus Thornton.

SF: Joe Johnson

PF: Kevin Garnett, Mirza Teletovic

C: Brook Lopez, Mason Plumlee

-Free Agents: Paul Pierce, Shaun Livingston, Andrei Kirilenko, Andray Blatche, Alan Anderson, Jason Collins

Total Salary of the Nine Players Under Contract: $86,014,337 ($74,014,337 if Kevin Garnett retires and he and the Nets agree to purge his salary). (these figures do not include our free agents, but include Jorge Gutierrez contract under the assumption it becomes guaranteed: its value is negligible).

The CBA, as it Applies to the Nets

For those who do not know, or who are beginning to learn, NBA contracts are governed by the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). The CBA is important: it’s rules tell you what the Nets can and can’t do. The following rules apply to Brooklyn.

-This year’s salary cap is $63.2 million. This year’s luxury tax is $77 million. The apron is $81 million: with the roster already at $74,014,337 for eight players or $86,014,337 for nine, the Nets are nearly guaranteed to be a team in the luxury tax, and above the apron. The apron is basically clinched if Garnett returns. These figures do not include the Nets’ free agents

–All team over the salary cap (read: the Nets) cannot sign free agents of other teams unless the team uses a cap exception to do so.  Four primary cap exceptions exist, but the Nets only have two due to their being above the apron: one taxpayer exception of $3.28 million and unlimited minimum contract exceptions which top out at $1.45 million (they rise dependent on the free agent’s years in the NBA). Teams also cannot exceed the cap to sign a player without his bird rights.

-Teams over the apron cannot execute sign and trade transactions.

-If the Nets make a trade, salaries must roughly match. For tax teams like Brooklyn, they can only acquire 125% + $100,000 of salaries sent out in a deal.

-Some free agents are restricted free agents: that means that the player’s team, were the Nets to sign such a free agent to an offer sheet, would have three days during which the team could match any Nets offer.

-The Nets cannot trade any draft picks before their 2020 pick.

How can the Nets keep their Current Free Agents: 

The Nets have Pierce’s bird rights, so they could offer up to the $19,181,750 max to keep him. As they’re over the apron without him, whatever they pay him has no affect on their other options in 2014 free agency, it just increases Prokhorov’s tax bill.

The Nets have early Bird rights on Blatche. They can offer up to 4 years, $25 million, and as with Pierce, such an offer would not affect their 2014 free agency situation. If a team were to offer a deal beyond that (hard to imagine), the Nets could not match.

The Nets do not have Bird rights on Livingston or Alan Anderson. They can offer either their taxpayer exception of $3.28 million over three years (3 years, $10 million), or a minimum salary. This is where Livingston’s financial decision comes into play. If another team outbids a 3 year $10 million offer, the Nets cannot match the deal. Also, if Livingston signs for the taxpayer exception, the Nets only have minimum contracts to offer free agents. The same applies to Andrei Kirilenko if he opts out: so essentially, if Kirilenko opts out he is likely gone. The same applies to Jason Collins, who seems likely to retire.

How can the Nets add to the team: 

Free Agency: As stated above, the most the Nets can give a free agent is $3.28 million per year, over three years: their taxpayer exception, and that can only happen if Livingston does not resign at that number.

Trades: Of course, trader Billy may make trades if he would like but they come with multiple caveats.

1: given rules regarding matching salaries as stated above, if the Nets wish to bring in high priced talent (read: players worth more than the taxpayer exception) they must send out high priced talent in return. Deron, Joe, Brook, Paul, Kevin, and Marcus Thornton are the only Nets who make above $3.37 million.

2: With no picks to deal until 2020, the Nets are overwhelmingly unlikely to deal a pick in a deal.

3: The Nets are nearly the cap for 2015-2016 already, but their only contract in the summer of 2016 is Deron’s. Despite the Nets lofty spending, they have made clear that they do plan to keep their books extremely light for that summer, to make a run at Kevin Durant and other free agents available that summer. They tried and are trying to make a run with this group, and that summer represents their opportunity to reload after 2-3 years of this run. If the Nets make deals, they will likely look to keep the books light for that summer. The only way to add to the books materially that summer while keeping the books light is to deal Williams…which is of course possible.

In regards to assessing what types of deals the Nets can do: the asset they have is the ability to take on money. For example, perhaps they can deal Marcus Thornton for a better player who makes a similar wage, but is on their team’s cap through 2016. That saves the recipient a year of salary.

The key takeaway: it is imperative the Nets do everything they can to retain Pierce, Garnett, Livingston, and Kirilenko. While some seem to want to move on, you have to understand that what the Nets have, is really an inability to move on.

Want to let those pieces walk? With only one sole $3.28 contract to play with, you will never replace their production. Want to build through the draft? The Nets do not have a first rounder in 2014, 2016, or 2018. If they bottomed out in 2015, they would not receive the pick because they agreed to a pick swap that year with the Hawks. 2017? Same deal, except the swap is with the Celtics.

So essentially, the Nets are in a situation where they cannot rebuild, because they will not be able to select high in the draft.

Also, the Nets have $62,711,663 committed to their 2015-2016 roster. The only way to obtain 2015 cap space: deal Williams for an expiring contract, and string along a slew of one year deals around Johnson, Lopez, and Plumlee. But what if the Nets struck out in 2015? What if limiting them to one year deals led to Pierce and Livingston departing (both possible), and an inability to add productivity to the roster. Also, if the team struggles as a result, there is no lottery pick to save the day given the pick swap, and how desirable would that team be to suitors in 2015? Is it smart to take a step back with no picks in the well, for a single 2015 near max salary slot? Doing it in 2016 with two slots, and picks coming sooner down the road, feels more prudent.

The offseason in short? If the Nets lose any key free agents, they’re tough to replace given their limitations. Their only way into the draft is buying in, which likely does not net a first rounder given the hype of this draft and the CBA’s premium on cheap labor. If they want to add a signature name piece, they can only do so by trading one of their “big money pieces”: Deron Joe Brook Paul Kevin or Thornton. A Paul or Kevin or Joe trade feels highly unlikely.

All in all, this all makes for a tough offseason for the Nets. 6 free agents: 2 starters, and 2-3 important pieces off the bench. An inability to replace them if they leave, except with a single $3.28 million exception. A 7th player who may retire, with similar issues concerning replacing him. 8 players signed beyond that, but outside of Joe Johnson all feel tradeable in some capacity.

Really, the Nets could bring most of the roster back, make a few tweaks, become stronger on paper in the confines of Kidd’s new system, and have a very good 2014-2015 outlook. Or, the opposite can happen.

As we all know, the Nets never make things easy.

 

 

Note: if you would like to learn the CBA in greater detail, check out Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

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Posted in Rumor Central

Can’t Beat Superheroes with Heroball

Posted on May 12, 2014 | 2 comments

You hear it all the time. It’s the end of the game, the big moment. Who takes the last shot? Who gets the ball. And with the way Joe Johnson prevailed so often to close games this year, with the way Paul Pierce has in his career, you heard it alot around the Nets too. You also heard it in Miami, in 2010. When the big 3 formed, much of the conversation focused on who takes the last shot in Miami.

Miami has the correct answer to that question, and Brooklyn doesn’t: the answer is that it does not matter, and you just run offense.

Late in games, when a team’s best player attempts to go 1 on 1 to get his shot, we tend to call it “heroball”: one guy trying to be the hero. ESPN has done extensive work on the dangers of heroball — even when you analyze the greatest “clutch” players like Kobe, Pierce, Joe Johnson, and others, you tend to find a trend: by and large, teams perform better in the clutch by running a play that produces a good shot: for a shooter taking a good shot, whoever he is, as opposed to force feeding one player. Even if that player is known as the maven of clutch. It simply makes sense: you run offense a whole game to get yourself good shots, as opposed to just milking one player. Why change in the clutch?

However, that view tends not to jive with how NBA players — the most prideful and competitive of men — think of a game. Many NBA players see the game in the same classic lens that we tend to discuss the game in. The end of the game is about “who wants the last shot,” and “the great ones want the ball in the closing moments.”

The Nets’ problem tonight: they have many players who think that way, perhaps have a coach who coaches that way late in games because he just played, and executed that way.

The Nets’ late game offense tonight starting at 94-94 with 2:13 remaining:

-Kevin Garnett isolation fadeaway

-Joe Johnson isolation miss with LeBron contesting

-Joe Johnson isolation miss, again with LeBron guarding him

 

Perhaps not as much with the first possession, but on each possession there was a common theme, not just tonight but also in Game 4 against Toronto and throughout the year: the Nets tend to decide who their best player is, or particular guy they want shooting, and go to him late, no matter the matchup.

That goes against what they do all game long, where their general gameplan is “move the ball, get switches which breed mismatches, attack the mismatch.”

Ironically, the Heat’s game sealing 3 came from Chris Bosh, off a play in which Dwyane Wade attacked the rim, LeBron — their clear best player — did not even touch the ball but set a screen — and the resulting doubleteams freed Bosh in the corner for 3. The team with the game’s best player, the world’s best player, who was asked for its entire first year together “who takes the last shot” learned the answer.

“It doesn’t matter who takes the last shot. As long as the team gets a good shot.”

In some ways, this is Kidd’s most notable flaw as a coach. He does many good things I’ll touch on more during offseason grading. He makes lineup adjustments in significant ways, like starting a point guard in Livingston in Brook’s place when he went down for the year. He’s flexibile enough to try things like Teletovic at center, Pierce off the bench. He’s toyed with Brooklyn’s defensive scheme, compensating for a lack of team speed and rim protector in an era putting a premium on each skill.

However, he can be pretty vanilla offensively, especially late in games. One wonders how effective his “attack the mismatch” offense would work if he did not have so many weapons, and then when he abandons it late in favor of heroball, things get messy.

It must be noted that many coaches, and successful coaches, have these issues. Lionel Hollins and Mark Jackson come to mind. And while Kidd may play favorites (some players have a quicker hook, others lose their minutes more easily, etc), that’s an issue with most all coaches. I also will add I’m one of Kidd’s bigger supporters: I usually take time to defend him aggressively on Twitter after games from those blaming him for any Nets misfortune.

While we’re on the topic of heroball as compared to Miami, if Kidd wants a model to learn from, look no further than the coach he’s facing in the second round. Rick Carlisle coached Spoelstra into a paper bag in the 2011 finals, and Spoelstra’s end game offenses in the 2010-2011 season were largely vanilla. He expanded his playbook in a strong way, and let’s see if Kidd can do so in a year.

 

Other Notes

-The season is not over. Yes, the Nets are all but cooked, but the key there is “all but.” You go to Miami and try to gut a win out. The Heat were a bit lazy in their round 2 closeout game against the Bulls last year, and you hope for the same. And if you get it done you try to force game 7 by doing the fans in Brooklyn proud. The slimmest of chances? You bet. But you never give up.

-After playing a good game overall, Deron Williams disappeared in a big way late in the game. His last 3 shots did not even catch rim (despite taking 2 corner 3’s and a layup), and that was just depressing to watch. Sometimes the ankles are the issue for Deron, but if he plays well a whole game then collapses late, you can’t blame the feet. Were it the ankle, he would struggle from the jump.

-While I don’t like questioning Kidd’s rotations, Kirilenko is incredibly impactful when he’s on, and tonight was one of those nights. He provides versatility defensively both inside and outside, makes timely cuts and passes which help offensively, and generally is inpactful. That was the case tonight, and on a night where a paint presence and defense on LeBron sorely lacked, he could have provided a bigger boost. His absence in the fourth quarter was conspicuous.

-Tonight is a crusher. The Nets played hard, did all they could to extend the season, tie the series 2-2, and it just didn’t happen. They would have beaten a ton of teams tonight, including last round’s Raptors, and done so handily. The playoffs are a brutal place.

-Please, again, stop blaming officiating for losses. After the fanbase really slammed the Raptors fanbase for doing that in round 1, it just comes off as hypocritical. Officials are not out there trying to rig games. The NBA sees all 30 owners as its clients, and deeply cares for the financial viability and healthful success of all 30 of its teams. It’s not going to ruin those relationships and kill fan goodwill by attempting to fix and rig NBA games through it’s refs. Just like the Nets beat the Raptors: not the Nets plus 3 zebras, the Heat are beating the Nets, not the Heat plus 3 zebras. Also, the Heat actually committed one more foul than the Nets in game 4; five more fouls if you don’t consider the four fouls the Nets gave late when playing the foul game.

 

 

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Posted in Previews and Recaps

Game 1: Some Takeaways, and a Look Ahead: Kidd and his lineups

Posted on May 6, 2014 | Leave a comment

In game 1 against the Heat, the Nets clearly failed to carry over the momentum of a rousing game 7 road victory, suffering a 107-86 defeat. The recap is pretty simple: the game was close in the first half, with the Heat playing better and getting better shots, but the Nets holding steady. Then, the Heat pasted the Nets in the 3rd quarter, taking a 79-66 lead after 3. The Nets played a bench group to start the 4th, the Heat increased their lead, and the Heat never looked back. On to the notes.

 

Kidd’s lineups, part 1–who backs up KG: Andray Blatche and Mason Plumlee were awful tonight, and given Miami’s small roster — they start Bosh at center and do not have bigs that punish you inside — this may be the wrong series for them. Blatche and Plumlee were useful in helping contain Valanciunas and Amir Johnson in round 1, but Miami does not have threats like that. If they are struggling, there really is no reason to play them. The Nets may be best served playing Pierce, Kirilenko, Teletovic, and even Johnson at times at the 5 to maximize their offensive firepower and three point shooting. Sure those guys won’t defend the paint — but it’s not like Plumlee and Blatche did anyway. 

Kidd’s lineups, part 2–his decision to call off the dogs in game 1: Much of the noise on Twitter tonight relates to Kidd’s substitutions, and I have a few points to make. First, it seems that Kidd called the dogs off early in the 4th quarter, a play I actually support. The Nets are exhausted, with an older team coming off an incredibly taxing series. They got hit in the mouth in the third, and looked tired. Kidd could see it in their legs, their rotations. The Heat were getting layups and threes, the Nets long 2’s. A comeback looked as slim as slim could be, given the third quarter, and the shots the teams were getting. So he decided that his guys simply needed the rest, to preserve some semblance of their legs for Thursday’s game. It’s a tactic I definitely understand, but one I would have negotiated a touch differently. Given how hot Deron and Joe were from distance, and generally, all night, I would have played them with the bench, and seen if they could shoot the team into the game. Then, if they could not, I would have stuck with calling the dogs off: but I would have given them the chance to pull off the highly improbable, just given their hot shooting. 

Kidd’s lineups, part 3–hockey substitutions: Nothing draws more Twitter ire than Kidd’s use of his bench.  Kidd needs to trust his bench, and it’s not as simple as shortening the rotation. Thornton is useful when hot, Alan Anderson is a better defender than Thornton so he should take Thornton’s minutes when he’s cold. Kirilenko is a good defender, but a minus when we need shooting (and his lack of shooting makes him tough to pair with Livingston). Teletovic is also highly useful when hot but not when cold. A bench of specialists and guys who perform different roles, it makes it tough to simply remove a guy — and his role — on a per se basis.

However, it’s one thing to rely on your bench, but quite another to play five bench guy at once through the use of hockey substitutions. The Nets rely on Deron Joe and Paul to produce points. It’s going to be way too tough for Brooklyn to manufacture hoops against an engaged Miami defense without one of those three on the floor to buoy the reserves. Avery used to use Joe as his starter to play with the subs, dubbing him “anchor Joe.” The Nets should do something akin with one of their three scorers. 

Basically, I support using the bench, and am not saying shorten the rotation or only ride the starters: what I am recommending is the simple lack of hockey subs. 

 

Other Takeaways

-Brooklyn definitely tired as the game progressed. Still, we got a glimpse tonight of what makes Miami so great in the playoffs. When their defense is on, I think it’s better than any defense in the NBA: it’s just not always on, because they play with such chaos, such freneticness, that it’s something they don’t sustain from game to game. They defend the hell out of you and force bad shots with their intense speed. On the other end they hit you with the world’s greatest player, and two top probably 10-15 players, and a cast of loaded three point shooting. 

-The Nets defensive scheme hinges on taking the ball out of the hands of lead players like LeBron, overloading the paint and strong side, and making you beat them with weakside shooting. Their rotations since January have been quick enough to sustain that. They were not tonight. Part of that was due to LeBron being such a great passer that he is able to pick the scheme apart. Hopefully another part was weary legs: the Nets will need to defend on a string more than ever.

-Everyone needs to stop saying the Nets aren’t trying, or aren’t giving effort, in all honesty. The Nets rallied from 2-3 down to take the Raptors – a team which played at a 52 win pace after dealing Rudy Gay – and eliminate them by winning a road game 7. Teams that don’t give effort don’t do that. This is professional sports, and the best team in the world. It’s the NBA. Effort doesn’t guarantee victory, or even a close game, at this high of a level. You have to tip your cap and respect your opponent, give credit when credit is due; in sports players make plays.

-I would not worry about this game affecting the team going forward. Every game in the playoffs is its own game, and momentum is vastly overrated as a concept, especially in pro sports. The Heat and Nets are full of players just brimming with an incredible amount of confidence and self belief. No win by either team in this series is phasing anyone into not believing that they can perform the following night.

 

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Posted in Analytics

Game 7: 5 for 5

Posted on May 4, 2014 | Leave a comment

10 games. A total 967-966 score over those 2 games. 5 wins. 5 losses. 2 wins on each other’s floor. Nets-Raptors has been an extremely compelling series, and now, facing each other for the 11th time this season, they do battle, once and for all, for the right to face the Miami Heat in the second round. The Nets hope to win their first playoff series since 2007 (the Raptors since 2001), and the opportunity now sits in front of them.

To prepare you for the big game, our entire staff is here to answer five questions related to the game. In addition, I am proud to introduce guests for today: Zarar Siddiqi (@RaptorsRepublic) of raptorsrepublic.com – an ESPN Truehoop affiliate which does outstanding work, and another excellent Raptors fan, @RaptorsRapUp. They have provided some of their insights on game 7 from the Toronto Raptors’ angle. You should check out Zarar’s site and follow both gentlemen on Twitter during the game!

Game 7: Nets Perspective

1) What is the key to the Nets winning game 7?

Justin Salkin (@brooklynsbeat): The same key as always. Deron Williams having a strong game. Deron has weapons around him, so when he’s on, this team is extremely tough to beat. Many including myself have speculated as to why he’s suffered from inconsistency, but all that matters is that he has. Him outplaying Kyle Lowry would go a long way in game 7.
Anthony Pignatti (apignatti360): My answer to this question is two-fold: First, the Nets must continue to find ways to score inside the paint. Joe Johnson has been featured on the blocks throughout this series for his size and strength that Toronto’s guards cannot match one-on-one. Inserting Alan Anderson into the starting lineup for Shaun Livingston has caused Toronto to rethink the way they double JJ because of Anderson’s threat from 3pt range. I highly recommend you check out TheBrooklynGame.com for an excellent breakdown of how specifically Anderson’s sheer ability to hit from deep impacted Game 6. Throughout these playoffs, Brooklyn is ranked first and second in FG% in the paint (non-restricted area) and in the restricted area, respectively. The Nets must look to continue this trend if they hope to win Game 7. With that said, the Nets are shooting just a tick above 33% in all other areas on the floor. Toronto’s rotations have been on point throughout this entire series which have led to a high volume of contested outside jumpers that the Nets just haven’t been able to knock down consistently. Pounding the rock inside is going to be key but in order for this to happen, the Nets must keep them honest by hitting a respectable number and respectable percentage from 3. One of Toronto’s adjustments for Game 7 may very well be to leave shooters some space and collapse the paint. The Nets must take advantage if they want to advance.
Jordan Patton (@jordanpatton22): I don’t think the key has changed from game 6. Deron needs to be aggressive and the Nets need to contain Kyle Lowry the same way they did on Friday. I think as long as the Nets continue to execute their game plan and Deron plays, they will be fine.
Dylan Mendelowicz (dylanM_NBA): Deron Williams. It’s obvious and all anyone is talking about, but Deron Williams is key to game seven and the Nets playoff lives. This is still his team, and it’s quite obvious: when Deron plays well, the Nets play well, when Deron fails to show up, the Nets have a much harder time winning games. if the Deron Williams of game six shows up, I think it will be a very good afternoon for Brooklyn.

2) Kyle Lowry shot 4-16 in Game 6. How do the Nets keep him from going wild on his home floor?
Justin: It will partially take a total team effort, and also depend on hoping Lowry misses shots. The Nets will need to guard the pick and roll aggressively, preventing Lowry from turning the corner and exploiting the teeth of the defense. Do that, and he’s then got to rely on hitting his 3 to have a significant impact: he is a great shooter, but if the Nets can make life tough on him and contest his perimeter looks, they have a shot at slowing him down.

Anthony: Kyle Lowry is similar to Deron Williams in that when Lowry has a good game, Toronto likely wins. As us Nets fans know, when DWill is playing up to par, the Nets also typically win. I think this is and has been the most important match-up during this series. Deron has received a great deal of credit following his 23 points and 50% shooting performance after playing through his twisted ankle he suffered early in the 3rd quarter of Game 6. But what I most notably saw from DWill was his excellent defense on Lowry, both prior to and following his ankle injury. If he can duplicate that defensive performance, the Nets will be well on their way to Miami. I also noticed on high PnRs with Lowry, the screener’s defender (whether that was Garnett, Blatche, Teletovic, etc.) showed on Lowry just a touch longer than in previous games. This defensive maneuver by Kidd forced Lowry (or the other guards running a high PnR) to dribble laterally, thus disallowing penetration. Lowry will be in for a long game if he cannot turn the corner on those PnRs like he was able to do in previous games of the series.
Jordan: Again, they don’t have to do anything less than what they did in game 6. Double team him when necessary, do NOT let him take open jump shots (if he hits one or two he gets hot and then tends to go on a roll). I think the main key is to keep the ball out of his hands as much as is physically possible.
Dylan: Exactly what they did last game. Switching and just get the ball out of his hands. When the ball isn’t in Lowry’s hands, the Raptors can’t function. DeRozan will be DeRozan and have another good game, but if the Nets can get the ball out of Lowry’s hands and force him into difficult shots, it should get the job done.3) Shaun Livingston was handpicked by Kidd to become a Net and to start after Brook’s injury. How should Kidd handle his minutes given his struggles?Justin: The way they did last game. Livingston’s been a revelation, but he’s struggled this series. Alan Anderson is a better distance shooter, whom has also held his own against DeMar DeRozan at a level comparable to Livingston. Livingston’s defensive versatility has value, and he will get into game 7, but Anderson’s ability to strech the floor has really boosted the Nets since game 5’s fourth quarter.

Anthony: Livingston reminds me of how the Bulls were able to overload their defenders away from Gerald Wallace last year in order to clog the paint. In today’s NBA, most teams have 4, sometimes all 5 guys on the floor that are capable of hitting from 3. When a PG is unable to shoot from that range, teams find ways to exploit that deficiency. Shaun only played 9 minutes in Game 6, but I would expect that to increase a bit for Game 7. He’s one of the few guys capable of getting his own shot, namely from midrange, whenever he wants. He needs to make better decisions with the basketball on offense, and he certainly needs to stop fouling jump shooters on defense. I’m not going to overreact to a few poor performances from Shaun. He has been in this league for a very long time and knows the game well; invaluable traits for a Game 7 matchup. I strongly believe Alan Anderson will again receive the start for Brooklyn, which leaves Livingston with the 2nd unit. He’ll see more than the 9 minutes he saw in Game 6, but because of his lack of a threat from deep, he won’t be seeing his typical 28 minutes. I’d expect somewhere in the 15-20 minute range for Shaun Livingston in Game 7.
Jordan: I don’t really think Shaun has been struggling at all. His removal from the starting lineup isn’t so much on him as it is on the above-expectations play of Alan Anderson. When Livingston was on the court I felt he was still effective for the most part. I think he’s just got to stay ready for whenever Kidd calls his number, and the guy is a professional so I don’t think that will be a problem.
Dylan: At this point in the season, emotions, feelings etc. are out the window. I still think he should get minutes with the second unit, but he has to be better. If he doesn’t play better, there’s no reason Kidd shouldn’t bench him. It’s game seven and both teams are playing for their lives. If Livingston can’t get the job done, is making silly mistakes and looks out of sorts, you bench him for the game. That’s it.

4) The Nets’ bench has struggled all series. Which reserve coming alive is most important in game 7?
Justin: I’ll go with Andray Blatche. I know others on the bench shoots the 3 (and Livingston was a starter and is hugely important), but to me, the largest dropoff to the bench this series has been defensively, and from a rebounding perspective, when KG has sat. Blatche shrunk this gap in game 6. Blatche is a fine player when he is aggressive, and 100% focused on the task of hand. If he can take that attitude in game 7, that would be a great boost to the Nets.
Anthony: This is an easy one for me: Andray Blatche. His intent and focus was immediately apparent during Game 6. What I loved about his game was his intent to stay inside the paint, an area he is much more effective offensively. Believe it or not, the Nets out-rebounded Toronto 45-42 in Game 6. Blatche, who grabbed 7 board in just 20 minutes, is one of the reasons why. When Jonas Valanciunas comes out of the game, Toronto doesn’t have any other bigs that can matchup inside with Andray. Once JJ comes out of the game, the Nets don’t really have anyone else that can impact the game inside the paint offensively outside of Blatche. If he can make a presence for himself in the paint with that second unit, Toronto will have to react and this could open up our shooters. They key is, of course, is to knock those down when the opportunities present themselves.
Jordan: I would probably say Mirza. When Mirza is hot he is an absolute game-changer. If he comes in and hits a couple threes it could push the momentum greatly into the Nets favor.
Dylan: : Andray Blatche. I’ve said all along that Blatche has the ability to sway this series, either good or bad. He’s enormously talented, there’s no denying that. But when he plays like he did in game six, playing some of the best defense of his career and staying down low, not dribbling around taking perimeter shots, he’s extremely effective and has an absolutely huge impact on the game. If that Andray Blatche shows up, it’ll go a long way it helping the Nets move on.

5) What do the Nets do if Deron Williams is not healthy?
Justin: This is the big concern. The Nets won game 6, but after Deron’s injury, really just held on. When he plays well the game becomes easier for Joe Paul and Kevin, and without that, those guys are forced to create. I would continue to utilize Johnson as is, and if Deron was unable to probe the defense, I would turn him into a spot up shooter.
Anthony: Deron’s health is a huge question mark heading into Game 7. In all of my years watching basketball, I’ve never seen a player with such consistent ankle trouble. I’m officially convinced that his ankle tendons are made of tissue paper. I can all but guarantee Deron will be on the court for this game, but that doesn’t necessarily proclaim he’s healthy. If he can’t plant and change direction the way we know he’s capable of, I think the Nets will use him off the ball and give him very little responsibility running the offense. Shaun Livingston may see a spike in minutes to run some point with DWill on the floor. Joe Johnson may even run the offense for a few spot minutes here and there. We’ll know very quickly whether Deron’s ankle will hold up today. Look at Deron’s lateral movement on defense as that will tell us right away if he will be limited. As mentioned earlier, Deron is the barometer to this team. If he is severely limited, my confidence in taking down Toronto drops significantly. However, Kidd can still make use of DWill of the ball if he’s able to get open looks and knock down his shots.

Jordan: I don’t know, but we will find out today because I don’t think he is “healthy”. That ankle sprain is something that would have kept him out at least a week or two if this were the regular season. There is a difference, however, between being healthy and being able to play. I think Deron will be a significant percentage below 100, only time will tell how much lower that percentage is. I think even if he is hobbled by the ankle and can still play aggressively the Nets will be okay.
Dylan: Play Livingston more minutes and just continue to play the way they have. Pound the ball into Joe in the post, and if/when they double, just kick it out and get good looks. Brooklyn needs a healthy and aggressive Deron to go anywhere, but Livingston has done an admirable job all year long. He’s had a rough series, but given his play all year, I would completely trust him if he needed to play more minutes and run the offense in game seven.

Game 7: Raptors Perspective

And here is Zarar Siddiqi (@RaptorsRepublic, raptorsrepublic.com) and @RaptorsRapUp, whom answer several questions related to the Raptors’ view of game 7.

1) What is the key to the Raptors winning game 7?

Zarar: They need to make the Nets pay for the pressure they apply by passing out of double-teams efficiently and initiating sets which are heavy on ball-movement. Reducing the number of isolation sequences in favor of more two-man sets (e.g., Lowry/Johnson, DeRozan/Valanciunas) would help. Defensively, they obviously need to handle Joe Johnson a little better, and not have Amir Johnson exploited by Paul Pierce with such ease – this is where Dwane Casey needs to do some, you know, coaching. Plus, maybe a three or two from Terrence Ross, who has been missing all series, would definitely help. If not that, then maybe if he could step up his defense and negate Deron Williams, it would be nice.
@RaptorsRapUp: Undoubtedly the key for the Raptors is finding some way to slow down Joe Johnson. The thought coming into the series was that Terrence Ross would assume the duties. He’s improved greatly as a defender that can guard the 1-3 spots and flashed shutdown potential at times in the second half of the regular season. But he’s completely melted down in this series and hasn’t even been able to provide defence or 3 point shooting shooting, the two skills he hangs his hat on. Ross’s disappearance has exposed a major flaw in the Raptors largely stout defence, which is that if Ross is of no help the Raptors have no answer for an All-Star level wing, especially one that can score in the paint and on the perimeter like Joe Jesus.
2) Kyle Lowry has been red hot at times this series, but shot 4-16 in game 6. How do the Raptors get him back on track?
Zarar: Kyle Lowry doesn’t need to be pushed “back on track”. He had a bad shooting night and tried to do too much on his own, partially because he was forced into late shot-clock situations by the Nets. He also didn’t check Deron Williams well. As far as I’m concerned, Kyle Lowry needs to keep doing what he’s doing and the law of averages will play out in the Raptors favor.
@RaptorsRapUp: I’m not too worried about Lowry, I think he was a little excited in game 6 and will settle into game 7 if his knee is feeling relatively good. His hustle plays and ability to draw offensive fouls should play better at home, both with the refs and as a means to energize the Air Canada Center, which will be a madhouse as it is.
Kyle’s issue is that he’s been a over zealous at times, especially in game 6. If he gets into foul trouble he has to alter his game, I’m sure that’s something Dwayne Casey has made him well aware of. Lowry needs to look to his lethal pick and roll game, especially as a means of getting Jonas Valenciunas, and Amir Johnson involved.
Jonas has been abusing Kevin Garnett all series long, and Amir has been a ghost for most of this series but has improved greatly this year at finishing around the basket off the pick and roll. If given good looks off the 2 man game Lowry needs to make Brooklyn pay with his outside shooting and by driving to get foul calls, again something I expect him to get more of back at home.
That’s how games snowball for Lowry, if his shot is falling it opens up the paint for him to draw fouls and find his big men underneath, or let DeRozan go to work with some space. That’s how the Raptors have played all regular season and if it happens in game 7 the Raps will be awful tough to beat on their home court. Kyle can get a little hero ball oriented at time if he’s really feeling it, or his teammates are struggling, that’s something he needs to avoid.
3) Joe Johnson has been giving Toronto a load of trouble when he’s on the floor. How does Toronto slow him down in game 7?
Zarar: Our man Blake Murphy wrote an article about this (http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/04/20/joe-johnson-picked-apart-raptors/). Dwane Casey’s strategy of “mixing” coverages against him worked in Game 4, the Nets soon adjusted by increasing their off-the-ball movement around Johnson, making it easier for him to find outlets. For DeMar DeRozan’s sakes, I would suggest a starting lineup change which sees either Landry Fields or John Salmons check him, and the Raptors continue throwing different looks at Johnson.
@RaptorsRapUp: Jason kidd played his ace card in moving Alan Anderson into the starting lineup for game 6 and just playing more shooters in general, doing so created good spacing and another shooter to make the Raps pay for doubling JJ. Not to mention moving the more athletic Andray Blatche ahead of rookie Mason Plumlee in the rotation. This threw Toronto for a loop as evidenced by Brooklyn’s 60 1st half points. The Problem for Toronto is that DeRozan can’t handle Johnson, as we talked about Ross hasn’t been up to the task, and they’d like to have Vasquez out there quite a bit but he can’t ever be allowed to guard Joe.
This is the biggest issue Casey and his staff need to solve after reviewing the tape of game 6 and breaking down Kidd’s adjustments. Any plus, either on offence or defence will have it’s glaring negative on the other side of the ball. I would double Johnson often and if someone like other than Johnson, Deron, or Pierce is going to beat you then so be it.
The Raps should also look to Landry Fields and maybe try to salvage Ross one last time and hope for the best one on one, if successful that would be the key to victory. After all, Johnson has had his rough patches especially for the first 3 quarters of game 5. The key will be to not Give Joe, D-Will, and Pierce, those open outside shots. The Raps have survived giving up too many open looks at times in this series. But as we saw in game 6 that can catch up to you, and when it does it will be nearly impossible to overcome with as many polished outside shooters as Brooklyn has.
4) The Raptors have been really good in this series when Lowry and Greivis Vasquez have shared the floor. Any reason they don’t go to that look more often?
Zarar: I agree that that lineup has been effective, especially due to Vasquez’ excellent ball-handling ability in the face of pressure. They do play that lineup enough so I don’t have many complaints there. The lineup does come at the expense of defense, as we saw Deron Williams go past Greivis Vasquez in Game 6.
@RaptorsRapUp: I believe we’ll get more of that look in game 7, despite the fact that Vasquez offers nothing defensively the Raptors need his offence since Amir Johnson and Terrence Ross have disappeared. Greivis can space the floor opening up lanes for Lowry and DeRozan, and offers another ball handler on the floor which Casey likes to have. Vasquez isn’t scared of the moment and has never met a s**t he didn’t like, he’s your classic “irrational confidence guy”, that can have its drawbacks but the way the offence has become stagnant Vasquez has become the wild card the
Raptors may need to win game 7. If he has one of his 7-9 type of shooting days, with a bunch of rebounds and assists that may very well elevate Toronto to a win. On the flip side, if his shot isn’t falling combined with his minus defence that could sink the Raps.
5) Nets Nation is very aware of what a series win would mean for Brooklyn. What would a win tomorrow mean for the Raptors and Toronto?
Zarar: It would validate the decision not to tank. From the city’s perspective it means more partying downtown. For the players it means more exposure in the US and getting valuable playoff experience. For the franchise, a step forward that brings it closer to respectability.
@RaptorsRapUp: The Raptors have only won a single playoff series in the franchise’s history. The Raptors started to gain buzz when they won the Atlantic Division in 2007, but after flaming out in the first round against guess who? The Nets, that buzz quickly faded and the team has firmly been a second class citizen to the Maple Leafs ever since.
The buzz since the new year has been greater than in 2007, and with the emergence of more high profile basketball players coming out of the Greater Toronto Area (Andrew Wiggins, Tristan Thompson, Anthony Bennett etc.) basketball in Toronto is as popular as it’s been in 15 years, maybe ever. Just winning a round, having something Raptors related to celebrate and the exposure playing Miami in the 2nd round would bring, regardless of outcome would be a serious building block for basketball in Toronto and Canada.
@RaptorsRapUp’s Conclusion: Ultimately it took Jason Kidd 6 games to find the Raptors greatest weakness and how to exploit it. With no one currently capable of Guarding Joe Johnson, putting as many shooters on the floor as possible and having Johnson either win one on one or find the open shooter when the Raps double is route Kidd now deems best. Casey and his staff recovered a little in game 6 to only allow 37 2nd half points. This game will come down to Dwayne Casey’s counter punch at Kidd, finding a solution to the new problem the Nets have posed.
If the Raptors can find their signature offence at home that can balance out Brooklyn’s attack if it’s firing on all cylinders. Ultimately I think the winner of this game will be won by whichever team can catch fire for a stretch and build a lead. We’ve seen both teams execute for just long enough stretches to stave off valiant comeback attempts after going ice cold. Will Brooklyn knock down enough of their open shots through playing another big Iso Joe game? Or will Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan find their shot, the paint, and the foul line to wreak all sorts of havoc and open things up for guys like Valencuinas, Vasquez, and Patrick Patterson?
@Brooklynsbeat’s conclusion: Deron will come to play. Pierce and Garnett will provide the Nets with the game 7 lift and edge they sorely lacked a year ago. Joe Johnson will come up big. And the Nets will win a road game 7.
Game 7 is almost upon us, it’s time to find out!

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Game 6 Preview: What are the Nets Made of?

Posted on May 2, 2014 | Leave a comment

By: Jordan Patton

 

Well, here it is Brooklyn Nets fans: the most important game in Brooklyn Nets history to date. Now, I understand this is a debatable fact but I stand firm in my belief that this is absolutely the most crucial game the Nets have had since their move to Brooklyn last year. One could argue that last year’s game 7 vs. the Chicago Bulls was bigger as it was a game 7, however, that simply isn’t the case for a plethora of reasons. The most important reason is this year’s payroll: an NBA record $190 million will be flying out of owner Mikhail Prokhorov’s wallet, and for what – a first round exit to the Raptors? If the Nets lose this game than I don’t think it is an overstatement to say that this season was a total failure. THAT is why this is the most important game in Brooklyn’s short history. They either win tonight and Sunday in Toronto, or this team will forever be the punch line of jokes about overspending in sports.

Now, onto the game preview… where do I begin? The truth is I have absolutely no idea what we can expect to see tonight. Will we see the Nets that wowed us from January until early April? Or will it be the lifeless Nets that spotted the Raptors a 26-point lead in game 5? I’m sure I speak for all Nets fans when I say I sure hope that it is the former. While it is too hard to predict the actions of the Nets, I can certainly tell you what the Nets need to do tonight in order to take care of home court and head back to Toronto for a game 7 on Sunday. The Nets need Deron Williams to come out aggressively and outplay Kyle Lowry. You know what, strike that, Deron doesn’t have to outplay Lowry (which, let’s be honest, seems like an impossibility with how well Lowry has played this series) – he just has to be somewhere near as effective as Lowry. Either way, it is time for Deron to step up and play like the superstar everyone thought that he was in Utah. The Nets NEED Deron to step up tonight.

In a few short hours we will know which Nets team and which Deron Williams showed up tonight, Nets fans. I need to ask one simple thing of you though: no matter what happens tonight, please do not try to blame this game or this series on the officials. Players win and lose games, not refs. Sure refs miss a call here and there, but good teams win despite bad officiating. Good teams win no matter what. Tonight, we will find out if the Nets are a good team… or a punch line.

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