Rapid Reaction: Wade to Chicago, Tyler Johnson, Calderon

Dwyane Wade is a Chicago Bull.  From the Nets perspective, in light of their verbally agreed upon offer to Heat guard Tyler Johnson, and their near miss on acquiring Jose Calderon from Chicago in a salary dump to facilitate Wade’s deal, much developed in their free agency plans.

Here are my Rapid Reactions.

I. The Nets could not ensure Wade stayed a Miami Heat by taking on Josh McRoberts

Let’s nip this in the bud.  Yes, the Heat, per some educated speculation, may have considered salary dumping Josh McRoberts upon any number of teams, to alleviate their books a little to offer Wade more money. The Nets – NOR ANYONE – took McRoberts on, so to say the Nets missed an opportunity nobody had, is simply untrue.

Wade was a Heat for 13 years.  Leaving for Chicago — home for him — is a significant, monumental life decision. The Nets — or anyone else — were not going to make that choice for him by taking on McRoberts.  When one considers that the Heat could have upped their offer without dumping McRoberts, this line of reasoning plays off even worse.

Wade wanted to become a Bull.  Nothing the Nets would or could do would have changed that. To get angry about not acquiring Josh McRoberts, when (1) we have no idea if it would have changed Wade’s mind (and I don’t believe it would have); and (2) nobody dealt for McRoberts, which hints that no such deal was made available by Miami — look how quickly the Bulls shedded Calderon and Dunleavy, is off base.

II. The Heat matching on Tyler Johnson becomes more likely but no automatic.

If the Heat paid Wade, that would have eaten much present and some future flexibility, as to make matching on Johnson a tough proposition.  Now, the Heat clearly have more cap flexibility in considering the offer.

Matching is no sure thing, still, however.  The Heat may simply decide the Nets’ offer, and its poison pill structure, is too rich and backloaded for their blood.

Like most all restricted free agent offer sheets, matching is possible, and frankly most all offer sheets are matched by incumbents in the process.  The Nets can do nothing but wait.

To clarify: the Heat’s 3 day clock runs from the delivery of Johnson’s SIGNED sheet, and offer sheets cannot be signed until midnight tonight — when the moratorium lifts and players may put pen to paper.  The Heat will have until sometime Sunday to match — or decline to match — in all likelihood.

For the Nets, sign Johnson or not, this was a worthy gamble — restricted free agents are difficult to obtain due to matching rights, and the Nets did well in targeting one of the more obtainable free agents on the market. How many people expected the Heat to lose Wade Deng and Joe Johnson this summer to have all this money to burn?

III. The Nets apparent (refuted by the Vertical) near miss on Calderon is simply not gradeable, until the next week or so plays out.

Adrian Wojnarowski reports the Nets never discussed getting Calderon from Chicago, when Chicago dealt him as a cap opening move to add Wade’s new salary.

Regardless, let’s delve in.

It was initially reported by ESPN the Nets were in the lead for Calderon.  Calderon, to clarify, is essentially on a 1 year, $7.7 million deal, but is totally worthless as a basketball player, especially for a 21-61 team mired in a rebuild.  If the Nets were to get him, it only would have made sense if they got an unprotected or lightly protected second round pick — the only purpose of the deal would be to charge the Bulls for its use of the Nets’ cap space by demanding a pick in return. Calderon has zero value to the Nets, himself.

The Lakers however, wound up getting Calderon instead.  Was this good or bad for Brooklyn?

The answer: it depends.  The Nets apparent, or potential, election to sit by idly and let Calderon go cannot be graded until we see the results.  First, what type of asset did the Lakers get?  If they got a first round pick, for example (all hypothetical), this is a loss.  If they got a top 55 protected second rounder, as we sometimes see in salary dumps?  Then this is a win, because that is the equivalent of getting nothing.  While neither is all that likely, that represents the two extremes.  Second, by not adding Calderon to their 2016-2017 books, the Nets have retained $7.7 million in salary cap space. Before judging the no deal, it does remain to be seen how the Nets use that space, and how they use it should factor into how the Nets decision is evaluated.  With Johnson’s number held on their books until Miami’s decision on (likely) Sunday, the Nets have $21 million in cap space without Calderon on their books.  If the Nets sign Allen Crabbe, a move Calderon precludes, then this is a huge win.  If they sit on the money and do nothing?  That is the other extreme, and could represent a loss.

In sum, the Nets made a choice not to grab Calderon and obtain an asset in the process.  That choice cannot be evaluated as prudent or mistaken until subsequent events occur.

 

So What’s Next in Free Agency

Four days of free agency are in the books.  And believe it or not, the Nets have added seven new players, the most notable being Jeremy Lin.

At this time, the Nets have twelve players on their  roster; thirteen if Miami declines to match the Nets’ offer sheet to Tyler Johnson (they are able to, and it will simply come down to what choice they make: we will find out on Sunday, July 10).

The roster, including Tyler Johnson, reads as follows:

PG: Lin, Whitehead, Ferrell

SG: Johnson, LeVert, Kilpatrick

SF: Hollis-Jefferson, Bogdanovic

PF: Booker, McCullough

C: Brook, J. Hamilton, E. Mockevicius

With these players in house, the Nets have $71,536,852 in salary commitments, pending whatever they decide to pay Isaiah Whitehead (will likely fall under $700,000), and the partial guarantees to Yogi Ferrell and Egidijus Mockevicius.  That figure includes Johnson: during the July 7-July 10 three day “matching” period Miami has to think things over, Johnson counts as a salary on the Nets cap, for salary cap purposes.  With a salary cap of $94.143 million, that leaves the Nets with $22.6 million to spend, less the small commitments to Whitehead, Ferrell, and Mockevicius.  And with 2-4 roster spots to work with (they could always waive Ferrell and Mockevicius), subject to trades.

So, what comes next for Brooklyn?

I. Tyler Johnson?

This is an easy one.  The Nets cannot ink Johnson to his offer sheet until July 7; the league is in a “moratorium” during July 1-6, which essentially means that pen cannot be put to paper. Once the Nets ink Johnson and deliver the offer sheet to Miami on Thursday, July 7, Miami will have 72 hours to match or decline the offer.  Johnson is a Net if the Heat don’t match, or a Heat if the Heat match.

II. Allen Crabbe?

David Pick of Bleacher Report reported that Crabbe signed a 4 year, $70 million offer sheet that Portland did not intend to match (Crabbe, like Johnson, is restricted; his deal with any non Portland suitor will be governed as the Nets deal with Johnson is).  However, the report was then refuted by Sam Amick of USA Today.  In short, it appears Crabbe will meet with teams, possibly including the Nets, this week.  Whoever signs him to an offer sheet will deliver it to the Blazers for their right to match to trigger.  On one hand, the Blazers paid Evan Turner, and may pay a center, which does cut into their resources.

On the other hand, the Blazers could in theory open nearly $30 million in cap space, right now.  They like Crabbe a lot, as they should: he is their third best young player, after Lillard and McCollum.  The chances they match are greater than the chances the Heat match on Johnson, and part of restricted free agency is not just identifying talent, but also identifying talent that the incumbent team may not match on.  To extent an offer to say to a free agent upon whom the incumbent will certainly match is to tie cap space up for three days and waste your time.  Crabbe clearly fits the Nets program, but I know that if I were in the Blazers front office, I would match an offer sheet in the $70 million range in a heartbeat.

III. A Bojan Bogdanovic Trade

There have not been ANY rumors of a Bojan trade by the Nets.  Nevertheless, the idea of dealing Bojan is something to monitor.  First, the Nets have added multiple wings or combo guards to the roster, in Johnson (if Miami balks at matching), LeVert (who they clearly have invested significantly in given the Thad deal), and Kilpatrick prior to the start of free agency.  While the initial Crabbe rumors did not pan out, it does appear the Nets are at least interested in obtaining Crabbe.  That makes for a lot of wings.  Not only is that a lot of wings, but it represents a clear intent to obtain multiple wings who can guard multiple positions, and play both ends of the floor.

Bojan does not fit the bill as a two way player, and in acquiring so many new wings, the Nets may be signaling that he is either not a part of their future, or that he can be had.

Couple the above with the fact that Bojan is a free agent next summer, and one sees that the Nets are in a position where they will either (A) trade him for assets or pieces that fit the roster; (B) let him walk for nothing; or (C) pay him.  And on this market, where Jon Leuer got 4 years, $42 million as a barometer example, that contract would be substantial – especially with the cap spiking again next summer.

If the Nets deal Bojan now or soon, they avoid losing an asset for nothing or being forced to pay the asset.  And when one considers how many players at Bojan’s position are being acquired, and that he does not fit the profile of those players, a deal certainly is possible.

Again, there is no report or anything to suggest the Nets are shopping Bojan.  But this is something to monitor.

IV. What Else?

With around $22 million in cap space, the Nets do have some options on the market.  One thing to consider: the Nets would owe, at this point, $70,377,568 to their players in 2017-2018, before figuring in a deal for Whitehead (likely under $1 million).  If the cap is set at $111 million, the Nets could have $40 million or so in cap space, but the cap may be set at a lower number — and $35-$40 million will not go too far in a market like this one.  That salary figure comes with every Net on the roster as back, except Bogdanovic (this is why paying him is difficult from a math perspective), Ferrell, and Mockevicius.  It assumes the Nets exercising tiny team options on RHJ, McCullough, and Kilpatrick.

 

 

With that in mind, the Nets should not exercise their right to exhaust too much of their current cap space on multiyear deals, unless the players they get can be part of the core going forward.  The current core is not close to contention level, so the Nets need to be watchful of how much they cut into future flexibility.

With that in mind, here are some sleeper free agents:

Tyler Zeller: Zeller was a quality power forward in Boston last year who can be more than useful on both ends.  With Boston adding Horford, having Olynyk, and facing decision time on Zeller, Sullinger, and Amir Johnson, maybe Zeller is the odd man out.

Meyers Leonard: A big Portland likes, but much easier to coax a non match here than with Crabbe.  Leonard can shoot the ball, and could be ready for a reasonably large role.

Dewayne Dedmon: He has upside as a big man bruiser. There is a reason the Warriors wanted him.

James Michael McAdoo: The Warriors like him a lot. Played competent finals minutes. Has upside as a two way wing.

Tim Frazier: Played quality point guard for New Orleans amidst injuries.  Ennis was useful and they let him walk; maybe the same happens here.

James Johnson: Limited, but a good wing defender Toronto never gave much of a chance.  Fits the player profile Brooklyn has been adding.

Ian Clark: He’s only 24 and gave Golden State competent minutes last year. Some want to see what he can do in a bigger role. A small deal could be worth it.

One year flier candidates: Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas: Both have struggled big time in Houston since 2014. Maybe there is hope.  But I would only offer a one year deal in trying to find out.

Veteran Mentors: Leandro Barbosa, David West, Anderson Varejao, Tayshaun Prince: Barbosa is still useful and the Warriors can’t quite pay everyone.  West may put money first this time around and would make a great teacher. Varejao will show kids what it means to put it all on the line.  Many of the team’s young wings are in the mold of a young Tayshaun Prince.

The Full List of Free Agents:

  1. LeBron James
  2. Dwyane Wade
  3. Allen Crabbe
  4. Dirk Nowitzki
  5. JR Smith
  6. Dion Waiters
  7. Festus Ezeli
  8. Jared Sullinger
  9. Lance Stephenson
  10. Matthew Dellavedova (offer sheet w/Bucks)
  11. Tyler Johnson (offer sheet w/Nets)
  12. Tyler Zeller
  13. Terrence Jones
  14. Donatas Motiejunas
  15. Langston Galloway
  16. Maurice Harkless
  17. Meyers Leonard
  18. Nene
  19. Derrick Williams
  20. Leandro Barbosa
  21. Kris Humphries
  22. Amare Stoudemire
  23. Jordan Hill
  24. Richard Jefferson
  25. Gerald Henderson
  26. Marreese Speights
  27. Kevin Seraphin
  28. James Johnson
  29. Randy Foye
  30. Greivis Vasquez
  31. David West
  32. Ty Lawson
  33. Norris Cole
  34. Tim Frazier
  35. James Michael McAdoo
  36. Troy Daniels
  37. Boban Marjanovic
  38. Ian Clark
  39. Brandon Rush
  40. Dewayne Dedmon
  41. Brandon Bass
  42. Anderson Varejao
  43. Luis Scola
  44. Hollis Thompson
  45. PJ Hairston
  46. Jordan McRae
  47. Christian Wood
  48. Miles Plumlee
  49. Aaron Brooks
  50. Alan Anderson
  51. David Lee
  52. Steve Blake
  53. Kirk Hinrich
  54. Udonis Haslem
  55. Pablo Prigioni
  56. Jason Terry
  57. Raymond Felton
  58. Marcelo Huertas
  59. Chris Kaman
  60. Jason Thompson
  61. Dorell Wright
  62. Brian Roberts
  63. Jason Smith
  64. Marcus Thornton
  65. Anthony Bennett
  66. Jeff Ayres
  67. Andre Miller
  68. Gerald Green
  69. Quincy Acy
  70. Louis Amundson
  71. Jorge Gutierrez
  72. Tyler Hansbrough
  73. Damjan Rudez
  74. Damian Inglis
  75. Mike Miller
  76. Chase Budinger
  77. Johnny O’Bryant
  78. Jordan Farmar
  79. Josh Smith
  80. James Jones
  81. Matt Bonner
  82. Elton Brand
  83. Tayshaun Prince
  84. Kevin Martin
  85. Alonzo Gee
  86. Nazr Mohammed
  87. Chris Anderson
  88. Greg Smith
  89. Kendrick Perkins
  90. JJ Hickson
  91. Jordan Hamilton
  92. Ryan Kelly
  93. Ronnie Price
  94. Joel Anthony
  95. Andrea Bargnani
  96. Isiah Canaan
  97. Bryce Cotton
  98. Cleanthony Early
  99. Charlie Villanueva
  100. Steve Novak
  101. Sasha Vujacic
  102. Xavier Munford
  103. Butler
  104. Dujan
  105. Eric Moreland
  106. Robert Sacre
  107. Metta World Peace

 

 

 

 

So, what are the Nets doing?

Three days into NBA Free Agency, the Brooklyn Nets have made some changes to their roster.

The new additions: Jeremy Lin, Caris LeVert, Trevor Booker, Isaiah Whitehead, Justin Hamilton, and Yogi Ferrell and Egidijus Mockevicius (to training camp invites).

The defections: Thaddeus Young, Jarrett, Jack, and Sergey Karasev, officially, and most likely Willie Reed, Wayne Ellington, Thomas Robinson, Shane Larkin, and Donald Sloan, as well.

Some Nets fans appear to like the changes Sean Marks has made.  Some?  Not so much. Regardless of your stance, one thing is certain (and was to be expected) – the Nets, at this point, have not transformed last season’s 21-61 roster into a title contender, or anything close.

So, let’s take a dive in: what are the Nets doing?  What is the plan?

  1. First Things First: The Cap and Asset Situation heading into the offseason:

            Below are the pieces the Nets had under contract, together with their asset pool, heading into the offseason:

Roster: Brook Lopez, Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jarrett Jack, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Chris McCullough, Sean Kilpatrick

Under 25 youth on the roster: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Chris McCullough

Assets through 2019: 55 pick in the 2016 draft; Boston’s 2017 first round pick; Boston’s 2017 second round pick (top 45 protected); their own 2019 first round pick

Cap Room (approximate): $46,436,000

Prospective Cap Room in 2017 (under a $111 million cap, approximate): $70,931,000, assuming no multiyear signings in the summer of 2016.

Essentially, the Nets came into this offseason with a 27 year old good starter (Lopez is a second or third starter on a good team), a 28 year old decent starter (Young is a fifth starter, maybe a fourth, on a good team), a 27 year old two year veteran with some potential in Bogdanovic, two kids, and filler – a group that formed the core of a 21-61 roster.

The Nets faced, and still face, several problems with regard to building that roster from 21-61, to a playoff or title contender.

1: despite being 23 games out of playoff contention (per 2015-2016 records), they lacked a top 54 draft pick.  They also lacked a prospective 2017 lottery pick, and figure to pick in the 20’s, and 50’s, in 2017 – where playoff teams hope for rotation players, but not starters.

2: despite the bad record, they lacked not only draft picks, but also a pipeline of youth already on the roster from which internal improvement could foreseeably come.  Players like Lopez Young and Jack (like them or hate them) are what they are.  Bogdanovic, despite just two years of experience, could be what he is, or close, at this point, given he is 27.  That means the entire internal development pipeline is two non-lottery picks who missed most of the 2015-2016 with injuries – and only one of the two players showed on court value.  Sean Kilpatrick? At 26, how much better can he get?

3: despite having $45,341,000 in cap room, good free agents, who can get a payday in many locations, make their choices based upon where, from those payday locations, they can win.  This placed the Nets at a significant disadvantage in acquiring real free agent talent.

  1. Free Agency?

The Nets could have taken the rebuild in multiple directions other than where they have gone, but each would have been fraught with difficulties – it is simply extremely difficult to build a roster from this position.

The Nets could have decided, against all practicality, for example, that their only roster assets were their two starters in Lopez and Young, and dealt away their youth to double down on those players.  What could they have gotten if they tested the market for Bogdanovic, Hollis-Jefferson, McCullough?  Could they have simply used that to further surround Lopez, then went all in on free agency?  Such a plan would not have been smart.  For starters, it is worth considering that the 12th pick in the draft netted (depending how you look at it) George Hill or Jeff Teague.  Hill and Teague are solid players.  Neither is close to a star talent.  When you consider that the 12th pick in the draft has considerably more value than Hollis-Jefferson (who was picked 22nd), and McCullough, and definitely more value than Bogdanovic, what, exactly, could the Nets have pawned off their youth for?  At best, they could have gotten a low tier starter. That would have left the Nets with Lopez, Young, a decent third starter, and absolutely no development pipeline.  The Nets would be totally reliant on cashing in in free agency.

Therein lies the problem Marks faces: free agency’s fickle nature.  For starters, look at this free agency class in hindsight, at this time.  Al Horford is not a superstar, but is the best piece to leave his team – and what intrigued him about his destination was it already built a 48 win roster through the draft and internal player development.  Bismack Biyombo is on the move, but is he making Orlando a contender; the core he augments was draft built in any event.  Dwight Howard makes his new team worse as he replaces Horford.  Chandler Parsons joins a cornerstone Memphis drafted, and another they acquired before ever playing a NBA game, for a player they drafted. Ryan Anderson joins James Harden, who was acquired by dealing draft pick considerations.  Go on down the line, and you will find more of the same.

Is this free agency group not enough evidence?  Look at the NBA’s history.  Aside from teams that snagged LeBron James in free agency (and even those teams were aided in their pursuit by cornerstone pieces they drafted), contenders, and good playoff teams, have largely been built through the draft or pieces acquired via draft pick like assets.  The Warriors, Thunder, and Spurs are obvious examples.  The Clippers drafted their two core bigs and traded talent they drafted for Chris Paul.  The Pacers and Bulls teams that once challenged LeBron in the East mainly drafted their cores.  The Raptors (they did win 56 games) drafted much of their core, and dealt a draft pick for Kyle Lowry.

NBA history shows you that you have to either draft your cornerstone pieces, or have enough of a youthful pipeline that you can trade draftees for franchise, or close, caliber pieces.  A pipeline of youth that can develop over time is a necessary element of success.  Even a team built around LeBron’s free agency, like the 2016 Cavs, benefitted tremendously from the internal development of Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, and Matthew Dellavedova.  The Nets?  Coming into this offseason, there was, basically, no pipeline to speak of.

III. Thaddeus Young?

            This all brings us to the pivot point of the Nets offseason: the decision to trade Thaddeus Young.

Speaking as someone who likes Young, has wanted the Nets to keep him at times, and has questioned the deal, there are risks to the deal that have to be acknowledged when discussing it.  The Nets had just two proven NBA starters heading into the offseason.  By dealing Young, one was gone.  And with free agency, as described above, not as alluring as it sounds, that was a real concern.  Couple that with the fact that Caris LeVert may never be as good as Young will be the next 2-4 years, and there is certainly risk for the Nets in making this deal.

However, there is also a clear rationale to making the deal.  By adding LeVert, the Nets bring in a first round draft pick (at 20, regardless of where some would have taken him).  The Nets also accrued more flexibility in the summer of 2016, as well as in 2017: Young makes $12.1 million next year, and $12.9 million in 2017-2018.

Young also makes that money as a piece who likely is what he is, and is at his ceiling.  The move acknowledges the reality that there are only so many “value contracts” you can have (contracts that, in a vacuum, make sense on the market) without having a star, before you are stuck in neutral with a bunch of decent talent that cannot contend on multiyear deals.  Yes, Lopez is on a good contract.  Yes, Young is too.  Suppose you add a third value deal (like say, Jeremy Lin at $11.5 million in 2016 and $12 million in 2017, as the Nets did).  Now, suppose a fourth (like say, Tyler Johnson at $12.5 million in both years, as the Nets did, pending Miami’s decision on whether to match the Nets’ offer sheet).

All of those contracts, on paper, are fair.  But that puts you, together with Hollis-Jefferson, McCullough, Bogdanovic, and Kilpatrick, at $63,128,758 in player salaries — or with about $31 million in cap room.  That cap room would have significant caveats.  First, the Nets roster still would be substantially far from title contention.  Second, $31 million in cap space does not go that far.  Even the best case scenario – signing a piece like Al Horford to the entirety of that space – would likely only create a sub contender.  Signing two mid-tier players to the allotment of space (say, Luol Deng and Courtney Lee), and you have an even worse result.

Essentially, it would be extremely difficult to take the Nets roster as of June – with just two NBA starters and no pipeline of youth — and use free agency as your prime tool to simply build out a contender.  So the Nets made a reasonable two part decision not to simply work the market at all costs.  First, they decided that, given the intricacies of roster building, they could only have so many decent pieces on reasonable deals – especially when those decent pieces do not project to improve going forward.  Second, they decided they needed more young players, to start building that pipeline of development that maybe, just maybe, could lead to some future player development down the road.

Yes, the Nets could not add top 5-10 picks to the roster – only dealing Brook Lopez (if he would even be worth one) could do that.  But the Nets now, legitimately, can hope they internally develop their own Dellavedova, or Thompson, at little cost – and as good teams do.

Enter trading Thaddeus Young, and making a sincere commitment to making the roster younger.  Enter Jeremy Lin, who is 27 himself and may not have room to improve, but whose career started later than Young’s which could lead to a higher ceiling.  Enter an offer sheet to Tyler Johnson, a near offer sheet to Allen Crabbe (that will be fun to watch play out), Caris LeVert, Isaiah Whitehead, and Justin Hamilton.  All players who, like Kenny Atkinson said during his media rounds after being hired, just may be able to get 5-10% better.

The Nets roster, at this time, reads as follows:

Roster: Lopez, Lin, Tyler Johnson (pending Miami’s decision to match), Bogdanovic, Hollis-Jefferson, LeVert, Trevor Booker, McCullough, Isaiah Whitehead, Kilpatrick, Justin Hamilton, Yogi Ferrell, Egidijus Mockevicius

Players under 25: Johnson, Hollis-Jefferson, LeVert, McCullough, Whitehead, Ferrell, Mockevicius

Does that list of under 25 players the Nets have read like a murderer’s row?  Without a doubt, it does not.  But the Nets, in a short time, have legitimately stocked the roster with multiple pieces under 25, pieces that may be able to help the roster going forward through their own internal improvement.  Hamilton, notably is just 26 and nearly fits the profile.

No, this is not a Timberwolves like youthful pipeline.  But it is, at least, a pipeline: some avenue through which the Nets are not confined to signing players of a certain level, but can actually hope for improvement from within.  It gives the Nets options going forward.  They can continue adding mid-tier veterans, hope for enough internal improvement to position for a big strike, and then hope to land it.  They could go the opposite way, trade Lopez for kids, and then actually have an actual decent stable of young players to grow with (and less time before they finally control their first rounders).

Trading Thaddeus Young unlocks the Nets from a fate of having to nail free agency (not just do well, but absolutely nail it) the next two summers.  It allows for some internal development.  And it opens up their future options.  That is why the Nets did what they did.

  1. For Once, a Plan

            As a last note, there is one thing that should sincerely excite Nets fans: for the first time since the Nets traded for Vince Carter, the Nets actually appear to have a plan.

Think about some of the moves the Nets have made since Sean Marks took over.  For one, the decision to trade Young was not the type of moves fans get behind, and the thinking behind it was complex.  Clearly, given the lack of wild spending, the Nets did not deal Young for the ability so splurge with cap space.  The decision was made that too many decent starters on decent contracts was ultimately suboptimal, and that a young pipeline needed to be started.  That was a complex decision, reflective of a complex plan.

The decision to sign Tyler Johnson to a poison pill offer sheet?  It is typically the most forward thinking organizations that execute contracts that nuanced; the Nets are not taking a simple view of the landscape.  Trevor Booker was smartly targeted as a superfluous piece on a big man loaded Utah team.  Justin Hamilton was spotted in the depths of Europe, and many have called him a player they had as a sleeper in free agency.

Finally, the Nets, win or lose, are actually thinking before acting – and not just thinking about what sells newspapers.  While Billy King added younger, less heralded pieces last offseason, there was no real plan in place with regard to those pieces other than “we need young pieces fans recognize, to keep them engaged with the team.”  Thomas Robinson was a recognizable name as a failed top five pick, Shane Larkin a popular name as Barry Larkin’s son and a former Knick. “Calling up” Willie Reed was a popular hashtag before he was signed.  Andrea Bargnani may be more infamous than famous, but he was a name people knew, a player fans would talk about as a potential rehabilitation candidate on the court.  Wayne Ellington was also a known name to those who follow basketball.

This year?  Sure, Lin and Whitehead are big names, considering, respectively, their ethnicity and Brooklyn roots.  But given how cap friendly Lin’s deal is in light of the market, and the fact that Whitehead was acquired from the 55th spot on draft night by solely dealing cash, how can those deals possibly be criticized?  The rest of the roster?  Few Nets fans knew these pieces before their arrival.

Marks has a plan, a plan that does not center around simply obtaining players whose names fans can put a face to.  Every move, rather, is calculated and measured.

No, the Nets will not be good in 2016-2017.  But at least, for once, there is a sincere plan about how to get good in the future – the right way.    

Nets Analysis of Every Free Agent

Free agency starts on Friday, July 1.  And new General Manager Sean Marks has started the offseason with a bang, dealing Thaddeus Young for Caris LeVert, and trading up in the second round to add Isaiah Whitehead.  As I wrote on this site, when Friday comes, the Nets will be faced with some big decisions regarding their direction.

 

The Nets free agency search needs to be exhaustive.  They do not have a lottery pick joining a 21-61 team that lost its second best player.  In 2017, they swap first rounders with Boston assuming Boston is better (likely), which will mean no lottery pick once again.  They will receive a second rounder from Boston after the swap (top 45 protected), but do not own their own second rounder.  Then in 2018, the Nets do not have a draft pick at all.  Finally, they have their full complement of first rounders in 2019, and second rounders in 2021.

 

So suffice to say, that makes nailing free agency very important: free agency is the only place where the Nets have the ability to add materially to the roster without taking anything off the table, for the foreseeable future.

 

The Nets, as discussed in my piece on their free agency options, face a fork in the road.  They can decide to go forward with Lopez, in which case they will look, aggressively, to add free agents this summer and next.  Or, they can decide to launch into a complete rebuild by dealing Lopez, and simply renting their space to teams needing to dump contracts, in exchange for assets.

 

Should the Nets hit the market, it will be key to look at all avenues for improvement it affords.  The Nets, after all, do not just need one or two pieces.  Brook Lopez is the only proven starter on the roster.  The bench is not that good either, at the moment.  Bojan Bogdanovic, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris LeVert, Sean Kilpatrick, Isaiah Whitehead, Chris McCullough, and Yogi Ferrell are a decent group of youngsters, but Bogdanovic and Hollis-Jefferson are the best of the group at this moment, and neither would anchor a good NBA bench.  The Nets have needs, everywhere.  They need frontline talent.  Backline talent.  And, frankly, more youth: the Nets youth lacks the upside of high end lottery talent, and without lottery picks coming, the organization must see if it can add youth in free agency in the hopes it can develop it.

 

All of that means the Nets must look at everything.  Who can step in and start?  Are there any younger free agents we can bring in and make 5-10% better?  Any reliable reserves.  Let’s take a look.

 

 

TIER 1: FOUNDATIONAL SUPERSTARS

 

There is only one (other than the not really free LeBron James): Kevin Durant.  I would not put the chance of getting Durant above 1 in 10,000.  With the news out there that the Nets have not secured a meeting, the chance is perhaps lower than that.  Clearly, the Nets getting Durant would totally change the franchise: so the Nets have to try.  If they do, the whole free agency plan changes.  It is more likely Hillary Clinton marries Donald Trump than the Nets get Durant, but you miss all the shots you don’t take.

 

 

TIER 2: VERY GOOD NBA STARTERS

 

Unlike with Kevin Durant, the Nets may have a chance to grab players in this tier.  They also need to grab players in this tier.  The Nets need players at, a little above, or a little below Lopez’s level to build a starting lineup.  Players in this range will easily cost $15-$25 million, so the Nets need to be sure that they do not overspend and lack money next summer, in the event they are successful.

 

The main issue, with all of these pieces: unless you grab 2-3 of them (and even then), you will not contend, but will load your books. Is that the way to build a team? Sure, this free agency period is the one that coincides with Nets cap space, but it is also lukewarm: why settle?  As a note, Andre Drummond would make this section on merit, but as he is going nowhere as a restricted free agent squarely in Detroit’s plans, he is listed in a different tier.

 

1) DeMar DeRozan: A very good NBA two guard.  Unfortunately for the Nets ESPN has reported that he is intent on solely negotiating a new deal with Toronto.  While he shoots too many midrange jumpers, he cut back on them this year and was the second best player on a 56 win team.

 

2) Al Horford: Horford is extremely versatile and has been a major component of the Hawks’ success.  He is also small enough (and well suited) to play the 4 next to Lopez.  While he is 30, he is not athleticism reliant and should produce over a four year deal.

 

3) Mike Conley: It will be tough to get Conley, but the Nets should try, IF they are trying to win in the immediate term.  In any sport, the ability to guard or stop what players or teams do best is valuable; Conley is a tremendous defender of fellow point guards.  The comparisons to Deron Williams merely given their age at the time of potential Net signings is a lazy one: Conley is a hard working player who has improved, not regressed, over the last several years.  He is not athleticism reliant, and should be extremely productive over a four year deal.

 

4) Hassan Whiteside: he was tremendous for the Heat when: a) they went small, b) they featured him in the pick and roll, and c) they had veterans reign him in and keep in line.  Those factors conspired to make him an excellent offensive weapon in the pick and roll.  However, he struggled when Miami played bigger lineups, and his defense is vastly overrated due to the aesthestic beauty of shot blocking.  The Heat were no worse defensively when he sat, and he is often out of position, failing to do the less fancy things that truly make defenders great.  The Nets should not add Whiteside unless they trade Lopez, and are able to surround him with the specific type of personnel he thrived with in Miami.  This scenario feels unlikely for Brooklyn.

 

 

TIER 3: SOLID NBA STARTERS

 

1) Nicolas Batum: Batum would be a strong addition to the Nets given the stark need for wings on the roster, and in general for bigger wings that can guard multiple positions.  Still, while productive for Charlotte, Batum is only an above average three point shooter, and how well his game ages may be an issue going forward.

 

2) Allen Crabbe: Crabbe broke out this year as a key piece with the Blazers.  He can shoot the three extremely well, and is going to turn just 24 this year.  He would be an excellent addition to Brooklyn.  As he is a restricted free agent, Portland can match any offer while tying the Nets cap space up as the offer pends, which complicates his free agency.

 

3) Chandler Parsons: It is hard to gauge where Parsons fits in the free agency picture given his injuries, but he is very productive when healthy.  He began playing very well last year after his injury.  Parsons would be a good addition in Brooklyn if the goal is to win immediately.

 

4) Bradley Beal:  While Beal is not the star some believe, he can shoot the lights out, and is a good, quality NBA player who can be a critical part of a contender.  The Wizards likely match all offers as he is restricted. His injury history, and the fact that he is not a star, both have to compromise his value as well.

 

5) Kent Bazemore: Bazemore became a productive replacement for DeMarre Carroll in the starting lineup this year in Atlanta.  Bazemore is not a core level piece, but can be a nice starter around core pieces.  He is an above average shooter and good defender on the other end.

 

6) Pau Gasol: Gasol has always been extremely solid.  He is unlikely to come to Brooklyn; the odds are he will join a contender this summer.  Even if he did come, it would not make sense absent a significant summer for the Nets wherein they added multiple high level pieces. Otherwise, he will not fit the age profile of the core.

 

7) Evan Fournier: Fournier is just 23 years old, has improved each year in the league, and shoots the three very well.  He is also a productive wing: a position which is both critical to success and low on talent.  He is a perfect free agent for the Nets.  While restricted, and while Orlando is trying to win, they seem intent on some big roster plans; perhaps Fournier is not part of them.

 

8) Harrison Barnes: The Nets need be careful here.  Barnes can shoot, and can exploit mismatches.  But he is not a playmaker for others, not a go to option, and not a player with star potential based upon his first four years.  He is poised, given he is restricted and played for a 73-9 team, to be overpaid.

 

9) Dwight Howard: Howard is significantly diminished from what he was.  After all that has happened with him and the Nets, and his decline, there is no reason for Nets interest.  Howard sincerely matured after his shenanigan like antics in Orlando and LA, but then his game declined, so it was for naught.

 

10) Bismack Biyombo: Biyombo emerged as an elite rim protector who the Raptors will be desperate to keep.  He only makes sense if the Nets both dealt Lopez and still sought to win in the present.  Biyombo is also an example of why the Nets need to look HARD at under the radar free agents.  Players like Biyombo (and Bazemore) can be had cheap before they become what they are now, if you can find them. Toronto did that. Someone else (or maybe Toronto) will now  overpay.

 

11) Jordan Clarkson: The Lakers will likely match any offers, and Clarkson, while talented, is not as valuable as some believe: despite being young and scoring the ball well, he has an extremely low assist rate and appears to be more of a small combo guard than a true point guard. The Nets can look to add him as a shooting guard, or first guard off the bench, but he cannot be a full time starting point unless he improves.

 

12) Luol Deng: As he ages, his per 36 numbers are in decline.  He also will likely stay in Miami or latch on with a contender.  He did thrive as a small ball four, so one wonders if that is the position he should play going forward, if you want ideal results.

 

 

TIER 4: SOLID RESERVES, OR LOW END STARTERS ON CERTAIN CONTENDERS

 

1) Jeremy Lin: It’s said that all Lin analysis seemingly boils down to his nationality, both among fans and detractors.  Strip that away, and what you have as a solid, above average point guard.  Lin thrives as a combo guard in the pick and roll, off the bench, who provides a spark, can finish games when he is on, and decently guards his position.  He is only an average range shooter, but he has value and will help a team.

 

2) Shawn Livingston: Warriors have a team option.  Absent the Durant possibility they’d be a lock to exercise it.

 

3) Courtney Lee: Lee may be disliked by Nets fans because he struggled in New Jersey after being acquired for Vince Carter, but players change.  Lee has evolved into a fine shooting guard whose impact on the Hornets after the deadline was palpable.  The Hornets added Belinelli, which some saw as an attempt to replace Lee cheaply.  Lee will be 31 next year, so he may be older, but if he comes at a nice price, should produce on a multiyear deal.

 

4) Joe Johnson: We all know what Johnson provides.  I do not expect him back in a Brooklyn uniform.  Best of luck, Joe.

 

5) Marvin Williams: Williams is often viewed in the prism of his being a draft day bust given the point guards drafted after him. But he is a solid rotation player and strong shooter.  Still, he may be too old for the Nets timeline

 

6) J.R. Smith: Smith was very good for the Cavaliers all playoffs, which is notable.  However, Smith performed well in Cleveland because they provided structure, and frontline stars he respected which led to less shot taking.  He would not fit nearly as well in Brooklyn.

 

7) Joakim Noah: Noah’s decline since 2013 has been swift and substantial.  He was barely an on court positive last year, and with many miles on his tires, it may be hard to reverse this trend.  Noah has present day value but should not be a target in Brooklyn.  He can help an elite team as a passer up front.

 

8) Ryan Anderson: Anderson is clearly a strong shooter at the 4.  But his being a former Net and popular love of the 3 conspire to overrate him.  He struggles defensively, and if you thought Brook-Thad front lines were bad defensively, you will not like this tandem.

 

9) Dion Waiters: Waiters gets a bad rap, but produced for Oklahoma City all year long.  He may be a goner given the Oladipo trade.  Waiters per 36 numbers do not impress and he is only a mediocre outside shooter.

 

10) Rajon Rondo: Rondo has always been overrated.  He does not shoot as well as the league’s best point guards and does not make you trail him over pick and roll screens.  His defense has slipped in recent years.  The Celtics improved when he was hurt and then traded, the Mavericks were a team he quit on, and he did not help the Kings.  Despite high assist numbers, Rondo often gets them because, rather than facilitate the ball movement that breeds efficient offenses, he holds the ball to try to secure assists for himself to the detriment of the flow.

 

11) Festus Ezeli: A restricted free agent but perhaps the Warriors let him go. His finals struggles aside, he did have a significant midseason knee injury.  A good defender who can pass reasonably well and play competent offense.  He was sincerely solid pre injury. However, he is poised to be overpaid.

 

12) Al Jefferson: Jefferson has always been a nice back to the basket big, but he severely declined last season as injuries besiege his career, and cannot pair with Lopez.

 

13) Jared Sullinger: Sullinger is a piece that would fit the Nets given his age and strong rebounding ability.  However, he is not a good shooter, only average defensively, and how expendable the Celtics seem to view him should be a clue.  Couple that with his likely expectation of $13-$15 million per season, and I would pass.

 

14) Lance Stephenson:  It is hard to rank Stephenson.  On one hand, he has three teams could not wait to dump him since 2014.  On the other, he seriously rebounded in Memphis: Stephenson has plenty of weaknesses because he cannot shoot, but he can attack the basket.  Memphis has a team option they seem likely to exercise.

 

15) Zaza Pachulia: On one hand, Pachulia was quietly very good this year rebounding, playing defense, and even scoring at times.  He also may make less than other equally valuable players, which is a huge positive.  However, his age profile suggests he may start declining.

 

16) Timofey Mozgov: Mozgov was looking at a payday before losing his way this year with his conditioning and then his role. He can be a strong center if he gets to play, but will likely command more money than what Brooklyn should pay.

 

17) Brandon Jennings: Jennings tore his Achilles and, frankly, was not good before he tore it.  He is inefficient offensively, has never shown he can run an efficient offense, and does not shoot the 3 consistently. There is a reason multiple teams keep moving on from his services. He is more of a sixth man than a starter.

 

18) Jared Dudley: Dudley is a little old for the Nets as he turns 31 on July 10.  However, he is quietly a solid piece the Nets can use.  He can shoot; which many Nets wings cannot do.  His game largely has not declined and can hold steady over a 3 year deal. And he can mentor younger players.

 

19) Eric Gordon: He is plainly unable to stay healthy, and frankly offers little but range shooting.  He will be overpaid based upon his name and perceived potential but he is already an eight year vet. I’d pass. Gordon is solid when he plays but just does not play enough.

 

20) Matthew Dellavedova:  There is a lot to like with Delly as a bench piece.  He is just 25.  The perception is that he benefitted from LeBron, so he may not get dramatically overpaid.  He averaged a legitimate 11 and 6.5 per 36 minutes last year.  He has consistently shot the 3 well.  He is a playmaker in the pick and roll.  He’s tough, and determined.  Delly may decide to leave Cleveland for a paycheck and the Nets should look into it.

 

21) Tyler Johnson: Johnson is the type of piece the Nets need to review for their bench. He is just 23.  He improved in his second year.  His three point shooting remained consistent, and good. He fit the Heat small lineups well.  Miami may be too focused on big fish to retain Johnson.

 


TIER 5: ROTATION/BENCH PLAYERS

 

There is much talk around the Nets centered around big free agents.  And sure, they need starters.  But beyond Brook Lopez, Bojan Bogdanovic is no better than a seventh man at the moment absent improvement…but he’s the team’s second best player.  The Nets also need a bench.  The bench should include veterans that can contribute, but the Nets are starved for young talent: the most critical addition they can make to their bench is in the way of young pieces.  The Nets need to add young bench players with growth potential, and hope they can develop them into something more. So, between youth and veterans, who is out there?
1) Tyler Zeller:  While he is restricted, Boston may not match as they try to take the next step.  Zeller can quietly be a solid NBA player; while his minutes decreased this year his per 36 numbers did not.  Zeller is a solid defender and has thrived in limited minutes.

 

2) PJ Tucker: A nice defensive wing for Phoenix.  He lacks the true two way value some wings have but he can guard, and you can never have enough defensive versatility.

 

3) Ian Mahinmi: Mahinmi has always been a fine reserve big.  He is pushing 30, but is a useful defender and rebounder off the bench.

 

4) Evan Turner: Boston may let him go as they hope to upgrade the roster.  Turner was useful as a sixth man but his reputation and draft status still causes him to be overrated.  Takes too many shots, and does not make those around him better.  And at some point you cannot project a player on potential; he is six years into his career and has had plenty of opportunity.  I would let someone else overpay.

 

5) Terrence Jones: Jones is a restricted free agent the Rockets may elect to let go.  He had a down season, dramatically so. However, that means he may come cheap.  If he is available at a nice price tag (I would not go over $8 million given his dramatically down year), Brooklyn would be getting a 24 year old who in his past displayed legitimate skills.  Spend too much and he can be an albatross, but a make good deal could be useful here, gambling that he was a victim of the Rockets moroseness.

 

6) Donatas Motiejunas: Motiejunas is still injured.  In large part that is all you need to know. As with Jones, it is worth seeing if he can be had very cheaply, but the Nets need to be cautious.

 

7) Jamal Crawford: He does little other than shoot from range, and has become overrated because his game is aesthetically pleasing.  His defense is not there, he takes bad shots, and he cannot finish a game with a starting unit.  Dudley provides much of Crawford’s value and will come cheaper.

 

8) Arron Afflalo: The Knicks do not want him for a reason.  He stopped guarding despite thriving on that end early in his career, and is only mediocre offensively.  Not an intriguing piece.

 

9) Andrew Nicholson:  He had a career year for the Magic, but is behind several of their young players in the pecking order as a restricted free agent.  His three point shooting developed, and he can score and rebound off a bench.

 

10) Dwight Powell: Powell was extremely useful for the Mavericks this season, providing huge impact minutes for a playoff team.  He was benched for David Lee, but coaches often see veterans as crutches.  It is worth seeing if Powell can build on his fine year as a reserve, to see if he can become a regular rotation piece.

 

11) Lance Thomas: Thomas is a little older at 27, but is the type of acquisition the Nets need to look into.  He shot a career high from 3 and one wonders if its sustainable, but he played good defense and hit the outside shot.  He can be a contributor.

 

12) Langston Galloway: Still a nice piece at just 24, although he backslid a touch this year.  However, in some ways, adding a piece like Galloway should not be a goal.  The Nets should strive to find players like Galloway before they get paid, rather than paying players like Galloway.

 

13) Maurice Harkless: Harkless is intriguing at just 22, but he has yet to convert potential into actual over a four year career, struggles shooting the ball, and struggled under Jacque Vaughn in Orlando.  Was his modest Portland success meaningful? Or was it due to Lillard? He is worth a look because of his success, but not at excessive dollars.

 

14) Meyers Leonard: Leonard, like Harkless, also had a nice year in Portland.  He can shoot as a big, and was a useful component on a playoff team despite being so young. The Nets should take a look at Leonard as well.

 

15) Nene: Starting to seriously decline.  Simply not the type of piece the Nets need to look at.

 

16) Cole Aldrich: Aldrich is an underrated reserve center who was extremely useful in Los Angeles.  Does the little things a team needs.  Absent a worth it young prospect, he is certainly worth a look up front.

 

17) Mirza Teletovic: Quietly, after a productive second season and good start to year three before injuries, Teletovic built on that and posted a career year.  He was very useful in Phoenix, more so than in Brooklyn.  He can really shoot it.  On the wrong side of thirty, however  Unless the Nets build a contender, he does not fit the desired roster age profile.

 

18) Solomon Hill: I would tread cautiously here.  Hill somewhat regressed in year 3 and Larry Bird gave up on him.  Yes, he thrived in the playoffs, but that is a small 7 game sample: 169 games of not meeting expectations should be more telling. He figures to be overpaid.

 

19) Darrell Arthur: Arthur has decent skills off a bench.  He is however too close to 30 and too experienced to be seen as having much upside, but at small dollars the Nets should consider him.

 

20) Derrick Williams: Easy to forget he is just 24.  He finally became useful this year for the Knicks.  Imperfect, but he can score off your bench.

 

21) Leandro Barbosa: Barbosa is still a useful reserve who can fill it up.  He will not likely go to a losing team (at the moment) like Brooklyn.

 

22) Kris Humphries: Quietly improved this year as a scorer, even shooting the 3, albeit at a subpar clip.  Likely too old in light of the Nets’ needs.

 

23) Amare Stoudemire: Amare can still score.  He cannot guard, but he can score off a bench.  However, he is too old for what the Nets need. They should pass.

 

24) Trevor Booker: Booker has always been a decent big but never stepped beyond that.  He is unlikely to improve at this point. He’d help the Net bench but there are better options for them.

 

25) Jeff Green: It’s always nicer on someone else’s plate.  Green has a bad history of seeing teams improve when he leaves and regress when he arrives.  He has never shown how he fits onto a good NBA roster.  He struggles to shoot or play the 3 and is too small at the 4: the rare “tweener” in the modern game.

 

26) Roy Hibbert: It is sad to see what Hibbert has become.  He let the yips in 2014 affect him and developed a mental block to success. The Nets do not need him around.

 

27) Jordan Hill: A mediocre big who is what he is at this point.  Useful, but nothing to write home about down here.

 

28) Richard Jefferson: Clearly still useful to a contender.  Do not see him coming to Brooklyn unless the roster quickly reloads.

 

29) Gerald Henderson: Henderson is the definition of average.  He is not a piece I would expect Brooklyn to target, absent for veteran leadership purposes.

 

30) Marreese Speights: The prototypical free agent to be careful with.  He takes inefficient long two’s and is subpar defensively.  His reputation clearly gets a boost from the team he played for.  I would pass.

 

31) Ramon Sessions: Sessions is a decent journeyman playmaker.  He would help the Nets if they build a contender and need a bench piece at point.  Otherwise, he is a dime a dozen and not needed in a rebuild.

 

32) James Johnson: Johnson was a nice defender in Toronto but does little else and was always dissatisfied with his role. He is worth a look as a relatively young defender, but will he be satisfied?

 

33) Randy Foye: He did not do all that much in Denver this year, and was a fair but underwhelming contributor in OKC.  He is not the type of piece the Nets need.

 

34) Greivis Vasquez: Vasquez caught lightning in a bottle in 2014, but is not a good piece and is pushing 30.  A make good offer as a cheap reserve would not hurt, but I would pass.

 

35) DJ Augustin: Augustin has had an up and down career running teams.  Some years, he has been a nice reserve guard.  In others, near unplayable.  He is a decent reserve piece, but should not be a priority.

 

36) David West: After he left all that money behind to be a Spur, to expect him to become a Net is essentially a hopeless endeavor.

 

37) Deron Williams: I did it. I found a free agent less likely to sign with Brooklyn than Durant.

 

38) Ty Lawson: Lawson is overrated on the nostalgia of what he was and could have been.  His per 36 numbers are abysmal, a bad sign as he pushes 30.  He has never been a great shooter, and if his quickness is going, that spells bad news.

 
TIER 6: SPECULATIVE YOUNG PIECES

 

By no means are any of these players guys that the Nets should bring in in the hope that they start.  For that matter, this tier of the list contains players the Nets cannot even count on to come off their bench.  The Nets are starved for youth with upside, and need do leave no stone unturned in developing their roster.  That building includes identifying young free agents who are either low end or are not rotation players, and attempting to develop them into better players.  None of these players should be brought in and expected to contribute, but should be looked at to be brought with the HOPE that they evolve from bit players into rotation players. So, who can the Nets develop, and who should the Nets give a strong look this summer to add on the cheap?

 

1) Tim Frazier: Frazier was extremely solid for the Pelicans after being added as a 10 day.  He is a restricted free agent but perhaps the Pelicans bite.

 

2) James Michael McAdoo:  A member of the near champion Warriors, who like him very much and even played him in meaningful finals minutes, where he produced. The Warriors have too many priorities this summer to focus on McAdoo.

 

3) Robert Covington: A useful player in Philly.  If the Colangelo’s disregard him and do not guarantee his small deal he could be on the market.

 

3) Troy Daniels: This is an option the Nets should look at closely.  Daniels is just 24.  He has gotten sparing playing time, but his per 36 scoring and three point shooting numbers are excellent. Daniels would be a useful backcourt addition.  He is restricted but the Hornets have salary issues.

 

4) Boban Marjanovic: He was 27 years old as a rookie, but his per 36 numbers were strong and he figures to be a useful NBA player when he gets minutes.

 

5) E’Twaun Moore: Another free agent that warrants a look.  He is just 24, and has shown, over a somewhat reasonable sample, that he can shoot and can defend reasonably well.  He’s played legitimate minutes for competitive Chicago teams.  He can be had and the Nets would be wise to take a look.

 

6) James Ennis: Another Pelicans restricted free agent who thrived with New Orleans late in the year.  He is a nice athlete that would not hurt.

 

7) Jon Leuer: A big who is just 26 years old and shot the 3 well this year, albeit after shooting it poorly in the past.  Could be useful off the bench.

 

8) Austin Rivers: Not a piece the Nets should look at, as he will get paid on reputation (he was a high draft choice) and name.  He is likely to get overpaid to stay with his dad.

 

9) Dewayne Dedmon: A Magic restricted free agent. Dedmon is a decent defender who rebounds extremely well.  The Magic seem to have big free agent plans; he is not Plan A, B, or C there.

 

10) Tarik Black: A Lakers restricted free agent they may balk on.  In spot minutes, Black has shown he has one very good skill: his rebounding.  He is worth a later bench look.

 

11) Seth Curry: Just because his brother is Steph, does not mean that he is undeserving of his status in the league.  Curry is a very good shooter who thrived in Sacramento in the second half of the season.  He has a player option but may easily opt out.

 

 

12) Hollis Thompson: A spot up shooter who has not displayed any other skill.  Still, a spot up shooter can have value given the league wide trend of going small. Sixers have a team option but he is not a priority there.

 

13) Ish Smith: Smith cannot shoot and is closer to 30 than I would like, but he ran the Sixers well upon acquisition.

 

14) PJ Hairston: A young wing teams have given up on, who did not impress in Memphis.  Would be a real flier, but the Nets need to take a few chances.

 

15) Jordan McRae: He barely played as a rookie, but in small samples showed the ability to shoot and score. The Cavaliers have a team option but he is clearly not their priority this summer.

 

16) Christian Wood: Played limited minutes for the Sixers, but showed he can rebound and block shots.  He is just 20; maybe he can do more.

 

17) Miles Plumlee: Plumlee is a decent young big, but is not nearly as accomplished as Mason.  He can be useful as a bruiser but does not offer much else.

 

18) Mike Muscala: A young big who is running out of chances and does not shoot the ball well when he is supposedly a shooter. Atkinson had him in Atlanta and perhaps he believes.  Hawks do have a team option.

 

19) Damjan Rudez: Rudez shot the ball well as a rookie but downslided last year.  He is pushing 30, so he barely qualifies for this list, but maybe he will thrive in a more diverse city, as an international player. I would not bet on it.

 

TIER 7: NOT GOING ANYWHERE DIVISION

 

            Some free agents are talented, but are free agents in name only, be it because they will not leave their franchise (LeBron James), they are hedging between retirement and staying put (Manu Ginobili), or their team will not let them go in restricted free agency (Andre Drummond). In the under 5% chance any of these guys do defect from their current team, they will not go to Brooklyn.  Here is that list, alphabetically:

 

-Andre Drummond; Manu Ginobili; LeBron James; Dirk Nowitzki; Dwyane Wade

 

TIER 8: VETERAN LEADERSHIP DIVISION

 

            However successful the Nets are in free agency, they will likely have a roster replete with young players.  Young players need veteran support on the roster.  The support helps them grow as professionals, because veteran leaders on the roster can connect with players, and help show them the ropes as peers, in the way older coaches and management simply cannot.  Some of these players have some productivity left in them, but in light of where the Nets are in their rebuild, they would not be here for that purpose. Here are some of the league’s veteran free agents, listed alphabetically: obtaining a piece or two would not hurt Brooklyn.

 

-Brandon Bass, Steve Blake, Matt Bonner, Elton Brand, Aaron Brooks, Udonis Haslem, Kirk Hinrich, James Jones, Chris Kaman, David Lee, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Andre Miller, Mike Miller, Nazr Mohammed, Pablo Prigioni, Kendrick Perkins, Tayshaun Prince, Luis Scola, Jason Terry, Anderson Varejao

 

TIER 9: THE REST

 

            Unfortunately, not all NBA players can be valuable.  Some players are stars.  Some have potential.  Some just fill a roster, and do not have value to a team in a rebuild.  Some of these players can produce, and can produce for good teams, in minimal bench minutes.  But they offer the rebuilding Nets little. Below is that list of these players, listed alphabetically.

 

-Quincy Acy, Louis Amundson, Alan Anderson (sadly), Chris Anderson, Jeff Ayres, Matt Barnes, Chase Budinger, Isiah Canaan, Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, Bryce Cotton, Cleanthony Early, Jordan Farmar, Raymond Felton, Alonzo Gee, Gerald Green, Jorge Gutierrez, Jordan Hamilton, Tyler Hansbrough, JJ Hickson, Marcelo Huertas, Wesley Johnson, Ryan Kelly, Kevin Martin, OJ Mayo, Eric Moreland, Xavier Munford, Steve Novak, Ronnie Price, Brian Roberts, Brandon Rush, Robert Sacre, Kevin Seraphin, Jason Smith, Josh Smith, Garrett Temple, Jason Thompson, Marcus Thornton, Anthony Tolliver, Charlie Villanueva, Sasha Vujacic, Metta World Peace, Dorell Wright

 

 

FREE AGENCY: WHAT IS THE PLAN UNDER MARKS?

After months of intrigue, the NBA draft has finally come and gone, and Sean Marks has begun the process of truly putting his stamp on the Brooklyn Nets.

At the moment, it is not yet clear what direction Marks plans to take the Nets, as he begins clarifying his vision through the prism of his transactions.  Nevertheless, with pieces like Joe Johnson and Thaddeus Young out the door, and players like Caris LeVert and Isaiah Whitehead in it, it does appear that the plan, in the immediate term, is to build the beginnings of a younger core.

Marks’ cannot be evaluated upon the honeymoon part of his tenure, before Thursday, June 23, 2016.  Waiving Johnson was a matter of catering to Johnson, while addressing a holdover of a prior era.  Adding Sean Kilpatrick was a surprise jolt, while adding Henry Sims was a largely immaterial to the future transaction, but, regardless, GM’s, and their plan, cannot be judged by players added on ten day contracts.

Even the acquisition of Isaiah Whitehead – trading the 55 pick for the 42 pick by simply offering some cash is an obvious win – cannot truly be a move upon which Marks is judged given the late time in the draft, although it should be a spark plug for conversation regarding the Nets’ direction.  Hope for Whitehead is sincere; he is a prospect who excelled in college and who many believe can thrive at the next level.  It should be noted that he is a Brooklyn kid, and the Nets have been known since their move as favoring splashes over practicality; it is fair for Nets fans to hope that such vain motives are not at play here.  However, Marks has maintained that such is not his M.O., and the organization has indicated that it learned from those mistakes made prior to hiring Marks.  All organizations can one day become great, and Marks is new blood; it would be unfair to simply accuse the Nets of adding Whitehead as a P.R. move).

Whitehead aside, Marks will be evaluated much more closely by his first signature move in the big seat: the Young for LeVert trade.

Thaddeus Young is a good NBA player, whose contributions go underappreciated by more casual fans.  No, he is not a star, not close.  And he is not the “two” or “three” option you surround “the star” with, when trying to build a contender.  However, Young is a perfect fourth or fifth starter to surround such a core trio, and has excelled and will excel in that role going forward.  He can guard multiple positions (an IMPERATIVE asset in today’s game), his speed is a problem for other 4’s, he can handle the ball, he scan score inside, and his jumper, while shaky, is serviceable.  He is also underpaid at $12 million per year given the spike in the cap over the past two summers; he is simply better than many players making similar dollars that were signed last summer, and better than players who will make more than that figure this coming summer.

In part for these reasons, I advocated on this site, and on Twitter, that Young not be dealt.  It was always my feeling (in short) that with the frontcourt set, the Nets could use their money this summer and next summer to address the backcourt. Marks took a calculated risk dealing Young, and doing so to draft LeVert, who, by the aggregate of accounts, is a piece with higher upside than most draftees, but also a piece with a significant foot injury history and who arguably could have been selected later in the draft.

That said, it also should be remembered that Young is not a foundation player, despite my affinity for how well he can fit with a foundation player.  There are certainly reasons for making this trade.  By keeping Lopez and Young, the Nets were going to have to rely, going forward, on surrounding that front line (which came with significant defensive questions, and lacks a foundation piece) with free agent talent.  In addition, the timeline for that endeavor was restricted: both pieces will not be mid age veterans forever, and the Nets would be facing the conflict of having to surround them both early enough, such that both would be as productive when the Nets were ready to win as they are today.

Trading Young alleviates some of that pressure.  At the moment, the Nets roster is essentially Lopez, and an amalgam of young talent which lacks a significant young prospect, but which has some potential to grow together into a decent group of talent.  Now, the Nets can more comfortably, if they wish, take the longer road to contention by growing their young base of talent, perhaps waiting until 2019 when they can pick in the lottery.  Maybe that path entails dealing Lopez.  And, if the Nets do wish to accelerate the timeline, they do face the harm to that path that Young is a nice player on a cap friendly deal, but the loss of Young in the short term is a small blow, by no means a devastating one.

So in light of all that, I have a lukewarm position on the deal.  I did not originally believe it should have been done, but I understand the Nets’ reasoning.  Still, with George Hill being dealt for the 12th pick and Marco Belinelli the 22nd, the trade feels underwhelming, given Thad is closer in value to Hill than Belinelli.  Nevertheless, the most encouraging aspect of the trade is that, regardless of the result or the value (which admittedly is somewhat poor), the trade shows that the Nets have a long term vision for their franchise.  It is not a deal that makes a splash, or features placing the short term over the long term.  It is the opposite of those things, and shows that critical thinking and pragmatism is at play in Brooklyn.  Maybe praising the Nets for thinking deliberately feels like the bar is set too low (you see those concession stand prices?!), but, given the impulsive nature of the organization just months ago, it is encouraging to see.

So, where does that leave the Nets as they head into 2016 free agency?  In short, the Nets have a significant amount of money to spend, with the caveats of a ton of holes to fill, a potential dearth of options, and a significant number of decisions to make.

The Nets roster at press time, with a salary cap of $94 million and projected $111 million in 2017-2018, is as follows (all numerical support provided by basbetballinsiders.com, realgm.com, or estimated by myself):

Players under contract: Lopez ($21,165,675), Bojan Bogdanovic ($3,573,020), LeVert ($1,562,280 if signed at 120% of the rookie scale), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($1,359,600), Chris McCullough ($1,191,480), Kilpatrick ($980,000); Whitehead ($543,471 if signed for the minimum); Ferrell (Unreleased partial guarantee) = $30,375,526 + Ferrell’s guarantee

Free agents (in order of importance): Brown (Restricted if Nets extend qualifying offer of $1,180,431); Larkin; Jack (team option of $6.3 million, or $500,000 buyout due June 30); Robinson; Sims; Sloan; Reed (Restricted if Nets extend qualifying offer of $1,215,696); Karasev; Ellington (Player option of $1,567,500 due June 30)

Other salary commitments: Deron ($5,474,787 in stretched money); Jack ($500,000 buyout if he is not kept for $6,300,000) = $5,974,787

The translation of the above? The Nets have (to the nearest tenth) would have approximately $58.1 million in cap space this summer, before accounting for whether Jack is bought out or kept (a $5.8 million difference either way), Ellington’s option; whether Brown or Reed were to take the qualifying offer in lieu of restricted free agency (I would expect an offer to Brown, but not to Reed); and Ferrell’s partial guarantee (which should be under $1 million).  That all means the Nets should have in excess of $50 million in cap space this summer.  As for next summer?  The Nets flexibility at the moment is significant; with a $111 million cap, they would be looking at a staggering $76.7 million in cap space, provided they did not add a single long term deal this summer (unlikely).  The only commitments on the 2017 books are: Lopez (a $22.6 million player option), $5.5 million in stretched Deron money, team options on RHJ, McCullough, and Kilpatrick for a total of $3.7 million, and likely commitments to LeVert and Whitehead for a combined approximate $2.5 million.

Still, however, in building the team the next two summers, every dollar committed now to 2017-2018 cuts into the 2017-2018 books, which raises two issues.  First, the 2017 free agency class is stronger.  Second, the Nets should be a more viable option for free agents in 2017 than they are now, so they will want money to spend. The Nets need to be careful, as a result, not to overspend this summer.  Still, unless they deal Lopez and truly tear it down, they will need to spend.  After all, cap space, even at these levels, is not worth much if you’re losing 60 games every year and nobody wants to take your money.  Accordingly, the Nets need to spend money to get to a high enough level to get good players.  Still, the Nets must balance the need to spend some money against the fact that the more you spend, the less space you have.  They will need to be sure that, while spending, they do not cap out their future, unless they do so by building a 55 win group. Otherwise, they will be back where they are now.

That leaves the Nets needing multiple things this summer as they try to build a winner over the long haul without the draft lottery.  First off, the Nets need NBA caliber players this summer.  The only clear starter on the roster at this time is Lopez.  Bogdanovic has talent, but has not played at a starter level consistently, and Hollis-Jefferson, despite clear upside, needs to frankly play more minutes before he earns the label of clear starter.  The rest of the young pieces are a combination of talented, but untested and far from established.

Second, the Nets draft pick and young talent dearth is still significant, even with the sincere effort to add young talent.  While the Nets young talent carries intrigue, it simply does not stack up well next to teams built around multiple young lottery pick talents.  The Nets, accordingly, cannot just look at the higher level free agents, like a Mike Conley, Kent Bazemore, or Al Horford, but must look at the younger free agents that could be had.  The 24-28 year olds on the market who probably will not amount to much, but COULD.  The Nets need to see: who on the market is a kid who is not worth all that much today, but can be given to Coach Kenny Atkinson and his draft and made 5-10% better?  A Dwight Powell? A Seth Curry?

With that, this will be a pivot point summer for the Nets.  Unlike Thad Young, Brook Lopez, while not a foundational star, is a very, very good NBA player, who is one of the top players at his position.  Players like Thad are useful, but are obtainable every year – players like Lopez, while not as difficult to get as in total control of where they go stars, are not always available, and do not switch teams all that often.

The Nets will have to decide: do they keep Lopez, and slowly, over these two summers, add starting caliber talent around him and stock the roster with youth as they build a contender?  If they do, expect the Nets to add players like Conley, like Bazemore and Horford, while leaving enough cap space in the cupboard for next summer to strike then as well.  In all likelihood, even the best outcome this summer will not yield even a near contender, so the Nets need to make sure they have money to spend next summer to further build.

On the other hand, there is the other potential plan this summer.  What if, despite the lack of draft picks in the near future, the Nets go in reverse, deal Lopez for kids, and start completely over?  If the Nets take this second approach, do not expect them to add key free agents to the roster.  Rather, expect them to use their cap space to absorb awful contracts other teams look to unload, while charging those teams draft picks as compensation for that absorption.  It is inevitable that teams will look to dump their bad contracts this summer, be it for no clear reason, or because a signing is close and they need to open a little more salary room up.  If the Nets head into a total rebuild, this is where they can act like vultures and pounce on the market.  The clear negative: expect the Nets to lose an astonishing number of games in the immediate term if they employ this approach.

So will the Nets take the aggressive, build it now approach, or truly swing into a total rebuild?  None of us know, for now, except Sean Marks. And, despite Marks’ initial honeymoon period and ability to say all the right things, what he actually does, and how well it works, will be what makes or breaks his tenure in Brooklyn.