Category Archives: Analytics

The 2014-2015 season for the Brooklyn Nets has been nothing short of sobering. A losing record through 22 games. 1-11 against teams over .500, the lone win in overtime against a tired San Antonio Spurs team. And while none may be fully healthy, this has come, largely, with Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and Brook Lopez on the court. Add in rumors of a “firesale,” (or, at least, loud shoppping of one or two of the three), and rumors that Mikhail Prokhorov may want to sell the team (which, while the Nets have not confirmed this, the circumstantial evidence of the Nets cutting salary and Prokhorov’s history of buying low and selling high on his holdings at least hints at) and you have a nightmare of a season at the quarter pole.

It is true that not all has gone wrong.  As bad as things are going, the east is terrible. The Nets are in the 8 spot at this moment, and could vault to 6 by late tomorrow night. They are adjusting to a new coaching regime, and did pick their play up the past 2 years when the new year came — is a third year in store?

Still, this clearly was not the vision coming into the season. What has gone wrong? More importantly, can the Nets fix it?

Deron Williams’ Resurgence is Real, but Overdramatized

The old lightning rod.  One thing about Deron cannot be argued. Say something good about him, and you will have a trail of his naysayers, after you. Say something bad? Those who believe in him, fully, will be as aggressive. The reason? The truth is somewhere in the middle.

Deron has been a better player than he was last year, or in the first half of 2012-2013. However, Deron has NOT been the player he was to close 2012-2013, or the player he was in New Jersey. And for all the spilled ink on failed Jason Kidd power plays, and Prokhorov’s sights on combinations with the Dodgers or an extrication from the NBA, and Billy King and his having traded a near roster full of NBA draft picks, this is the true issue in Net land.

The bottom line is the Nets, since 2010, made everything about dealing for a star, and surrounding him with talent to win in the present. That flagship player was Deron. Not Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez or Paul Pierce (that’s not why they brought HIM here), but Deron.

Is Deron better than last year? Yes! Is he THAT? No! And that’s the problem.

Sadly, and concerningly, there were signs of Deron getting back to that early in the season: and with all his maladies, expecting a rapid spike was unreasonable. But Deron has not built on that resurgence, having generally played worse, or at best neutrally to the early portion of the year, as the season progressed.

In today’s game, it is critical for a lead guard to be able to get to the rim. Gone are the days of Shaq, Hakeem, prime Duncan, and giants bullying through defenses. The new NBA is built on the dribble drive and three pointer.  Want open threes? You won’t get them by just passing the ball around the perimeter as the defense watches. You have to get into the teeth of the defense. Force doubleteams. Force mistakes in rotations. That’s how you turn contested threes into open ones. That’s not something Brooklyn gets enough of. Don’t you think a team with ALL this three point shooting on paper (Deron, Joe, Mirza, Bojan, etc) should rank above 19th in 3 point %.

It would, if they took good threes. But the Nets don’t get into the teeth of the defense, to force unpressured, good looks. Far too often their lead playmaker, Deron, possums around with the ball, and passes to a complementary player, puttting him in a position to create, as opposed to facilitating, and creating the easy look.

The proof is in the pudding. For Deron, a good breakdown point is the first 8 games and the last 14.  Through 8 games, the Nets looked sharp. A nice 4-2 start, and two losses in Phoenix and Golden State that, despite the blown lead in Phoenix, had many positives. Since, the team is a wreck offensively.

Deron is shooting just 43% from inside 10 feet since that point in the year (http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/101114/tracking/shots/). That is down from 49% in the first 8. A Deron finishing inside 10 feet: that’s a Deron getting into the lane and making things happen. A near elite player (he was not elite, but he was positively trending).

The result? The defense has to respect his dribble drive. Defenders commit. Deron is unselfish, so the ball whips around. Guys like Teletovic, Bogdanovic, and even Johnson are the recipients, and get nice, clean looks at the basket.

Deron shooting 43% from inside the lane, with his attempts down? (http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/101114/tracking/shots/?DateFrom=11%2F14%2F2014&DateTo=12%2F15%2F2014 – Deron is shooting 33% of his shots inside 10 feet since the Warriors game; he was near 38%).  Now, the defense is not being broken down. Teletovic and Bogdanovic are not open, or attacking frantic closeouts. Rather, they are going up against set defenders. Suddenly, Deron’s effectiveness wanes, even just a little, and theirs does. Guys lose confidence. Start submarining the offense going 1 on 1. Sound familiar?

The other place this effect is extremely noticeable: Deron’s hockey assists are way down from the start of the season.  Sure, the NBA does not credit secondary assists (or hockey assists: making the pass that leads to the pass) in the traditional box score, but the stat is valuable.  It tells you when a player is drawing the defense, and causing it to collapse: often that player passes it out, and the defense is able to rotate once — but not twice — the next pass is the killer.

Through 8 games, Deron averaged 3.1 hockey assists per game, per Devin Kharpertian of the Brooklyn Game (https://twitter.com/uuords: Scroll to his tweet of 11/13). Right now? He is averaging just 1.8 on the season, with just 18 hockey assists since that point–just a touch over one per game. The difference is stark in the Nets offense. When Deron was getting into the lane more effectively, defenses collapsed. He willingly passed. It often led to open shots, either off his pass or the next. Those secondary assist opportunities are not coming, because he is not breaking defenses down with the same vigor.

Maybe it’s the ankles and he gets it back. Maybe it’s the way the roster fits. Maybe it’s a permanent loss of explosion. But the further New Jersey Deron seeps into the rearview mirror, the less likely he comes back.

Why is the decreased shot creation a problem? For starters, it’s necessary for the offense to function. Joe Johnson, struggling early in the year, really is what he is. Ride him, and he’ll sometimes get hot, sometimes shoot you out of games. He is so much better when he is the focal point in the post, or when he is the beneficiary of Deron penetration, because he is a knockdown shooter when he has space. When Deron does not create, he has to. When he has to create, things work really well when it happens out of the post, and generally go poorly otherwise. That shot creation from the post, of course, is largely absent when Brook Lopez is on the court: you can’t build two beautiful houses on the same parcel of land.  (More on that later).

Brook Lopez, for that matter, is struggling too. As with Deron he is struggling to finish inside compared to his all star year in Brooklyn (http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201572/stats/shooting/?Season=2012-13 ). Such is the nature of a foot injury. You lose explosion, and that makes it harder to elevate and thus, be in proper position to finish. You are ginger with your moves, as opposed to confident and smooth. You watch where you plant, and think instead of react.

Put the struggles together, and ironically, this is a Nets team that is struggling to score, not struggling to defend. The Nets rank 11th in the league on defense, 23rd on offense (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1). That is a team defending well enough to win–a team playing hard for its coach–but a team struggling to put the ball in the hoop.  Through 8 games the team ranked 5th offensively, and 20th defensively. Ironically, the defense is top 10 in the league since the strong start to the year–the Nets are actually defending better than when they were 4-2. The offense? 27th since the Portland road game. Bottom 4.

10 points. 5/14 shooting. Overwhelmed by a good, not great, center in Nikola Pekovic. Blown rotations. Missed bunnies and a lack of touch in and around the paint. Jumpers that had no chance of going in. Gettable rebounds that went elsewhere. Allowing other bigs to establish strong post position while failing to establish similar positions on the other end.

That was a recap Brook Lopez’s performance agaisnt the Minnesota Timberwolves, a disappointing 98-91 home loss that dropped the Nets to 2-2 on the young season.

Some of those problems sound like Lopez. Sure. He has struggled to rebound throughout his NBA career, and likely will never be a great rebounder. He does, at times, struggle to an extent with bigger, stronger NBA bigs. He does blow the occasional rotation or coverage. Those problems largely are what they are

But at the same time, much of Brook’s struggles were out of character with the player the NBA has grown accustomed to. Missed bunnies around the hoop? The jumpers 3 feet east of the hoop? The inability to score off a basic post up or get to the foul line? Atrocious defense? Brook suffers lapses as a defender but has progressed on that end since the move to Brooklyn. Yes, Lopez has his warts, some of which will not simply disappear. But, he’s clearly a better player than he was tonight.

Which brings 2 questions: What is the issue with Lopez, and how should Lionel Hollins handle it?

Maybe he’s out of shape: This is no knock on Lopez, specifically. When you sustain a severe foot injury, you cannot run. You cannot walk without the aid of a cane or cast. Can you lift weights? Sure. But an NBA game is a 2.5 hour grind, of intense running up and down a court. From December 20, 2013 through November 3, 2014, Brook did not do that, in a game that counted. Not once.

What happens when you stop running and moving? Your body becomes unaccustomed to running, moving, jumping. Your endurance declines. You tire, and tire quickly. And what happens when you’re tired? You don’t fight for post position, because you’re tired. Or make that quick rotation. Or give the extra bit of footwork on that jump hook necessary to get into position to score. You start making mistakes, bcause your body does not make the correct play instinctually.

Brook looks completely out of shape while he is on the floor: he looks fine, in regards to his weight and build. But as he plays, you see a player who is nowhere near ready to compete in an NBA game for 30-35 healthy productive minutes.

Maybe he’s feeling pain, or thinking about his foot: Of course, if Brook has foot pain, it would explain much of his poor play in game 2 back. But perhaps there is no pain, and he is thinking about his foot as he plays. It would be hard for Lopez not to think about his foot. Three surgical foot procedures since the NBA lockout ended. A realignment of the bones in his foot. A sprain almost immediately upon getting back onto the floor. It is understandable that while playing, Brook would think about his foot, hoping not to injure it and managing how he moves it.

The problem? Basketball requires moving swiftly. Using quick footwork to position yourself for that jump hook. Making that hard cut. pushing that offensive player on that box out. Sliding to make a quick rotation. Those things become hard to do when you are thinking “I cannot hurt my foot,” rather than thinking about the task at hand. And any sport is a game of inches. Being a half inch off balance on the jump hook is the difference between two points and a missed hook shot. Being a step slow on the defensive rotation is the difference between a basket for the Timberwolves and a good contest and stop for the Nets.

Whatever the reason, one thing is true: Lopez, while he has his problems even when playing his best basketball, is nowhere near that level at this moment. He has played two competitive, meaningful games since a third foot surgery and major realignment of the bone structure of his foot, and it is clear that he is nowhere near himself on the court. He looks uncomfortable, nervous about taking contact (this is not usually an issue: Brook is often maligned for not being physical but when healthy typically makes every effort to be aggressive, often limited by a lack of quickness and athleticism to beat a defender if anything, not a desire to), and out of place. That hopefully will change as the season progresses: if he can remain healthy, he should get his wind back and grow secure within his body once again.

So What does Lionel do from here? That is the tough balance.  While Mason Plumlee is perhaps more popular than Lopez: he is cheaper, younger, was not nearly traded for Dwight Howard, is more athletic (athleticism always gives the appearance of playing hard), and does not require the ball to be effective. However, for all the love for Plumlee, he commonly blows rotations, struggles every bit as much as Lopez on the glass, and, unlike Lopez, is not an elite scorer. The Nets are able to put Brook on the move, and run set plays designed to get Lopez baby hooks in the paint: the same plays are simply less effective when run for Plumlee.

Hollins knows that, and knows that, ultimately, when May comes, the Nets’ best lineups will feature Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and Lopez.  Right now, that may not be the case: if Lopez is this compromised as he recovers from an injured man who could not walk without an aid into a rejuvenated all star, he is likely not as good of an option, at this particular juncture, as Plumlee.

That present Hollins with a tough issue to balance. Tonight, he played Lopez through his struggles. By doing that, you may help accelerate his injury recovery: the more healthy minutes, the less he is yanked from games, the better his confidence in himself and his foot, the more prepared he will be for the spring, when the Nets very much need not just a healthy, but a fully recovered Lopez. For all the talk of injuries being mental for Williams, they surely are for Lopez, whose personality lends itself to getting down on himself, and insecure in his abilities.

However, it is also true that if the Nets give Lopez less minutes when he is struggling, that they will be better off for it in the short term. Would Plumlee, +17 tonight in his minutes, have been more useful than Lopez in dealing with Pekovic down the stretch? NBA games are won and lost by many, and while no player is every fully to credit for a win or blame for a loss, Lopez bears the lion’s share of fault for the Nets loss to the Wolves. Pekovic absolutely owned him. While Ricky Rubio outplayed Williams late, Williams torched him all night (Williams lacked confidence late, or perhaps has conditioning issues in his injury recovery as well; his assertiveness declined as the game went on, but he also carried the Nets as the team stood and watched early). Johnson started slowly but had a great close to the game, and the Nets got some decent role player contributions from Jarrett Jack (his best game of the year), Mirza Teletovic, and even Alan Anderson.

The bottom line is that the Nets generally got enough from two of their top three players to win, and given Minnesota’s status as a likely lottery team, got just enough from their role players on their home floor. They played poorly overall but competed, and had they gotten decent center play against Pekovic, they would have won the game. What they got was awful center play, and Lopez was at the heart of it.

Would Plumlee have fared better? It’s very possible; plus minus can be misleading but it told a true tale tonight. But the Nets went with working on getting Lopez back to full throttle, as opposed to reacting to his poor play by playing Plumlee, who was having a better knight than Brook. 82 games sound like a lot but they disappear fast: last year, even in a slow starting Atlantic, the Nets could not recover from their 10-21 hole in time to win the Atlantic, and that team had more dimensions than this year’s version given the facets of smallball that Livingston and Pierce presented.

Essentially, Lopez’s poor play tonight felt like three parts injury recovery, one part “he is who he is.” As Lopez works on those three parts, expect some rough outings like tonight. But how long can Lionel ride him with the playoffs, home court, division, and overall team habits on the line?

Other Notes

Deron Williams’ start to the season deserves its own post. The he’s back proclamations are premature, because he is not back, but he is very much on the right path. If Utah Deron is a 10, and last year’s Deron is a 1, Deron is around a 6.5-7.5 at the moment — the improvement is significant, but not total, and he still struggles at time with his confidence as he rediscovers what he can do and grows accustomed to knowing his body’s limits. He is also struggling with his shooting given his nagging wrist/hand issue he has recently developed, and needs to stroke the ball more cleanly to open up more of his game. Alas, Deron looks better everytime he takes the court, and so far, so good regarding his recovery. Still, he’s not “back.” Not yet.

I love what I see from Lionel Hollins early in his tenure. There’s much to say, but one key: he has this team playing hard. The loss to Minnesota, while a bad loss that will sting, was an example. Minnesota last year would have stretched that 17-2 lead into a larger lead, or held it longer. The Nets did not allow that because they competed extremely hard. Lopez was awful. Kevin Garnett was bad. Multiple Nets were bad, or provided nothing of substance. Bojan Bogdanovic still can’t locate Kevin Martin. But the Nets competed, and that was why, despite playing a very very bad game from an execution perspective, they gave themselves a chance to win. They lost because they did not play well enough to get it done, but Lionel has the troops fighting.

Bojan Bogdanovic is off to a strong start from a developmental perspective. You can see his basketball IQ in timely cuts to the basket, and he can shoot the ball. He is a smart, instinctual player with clear NBA talent. He makes mistakes. He blows defensive coverages. But the talent is very clearly there, the upside very clearly there. The hope for Brooklyn is Bogdanovic is more productive in the spring than he is now. On that note, the hope is that Deron and Brook also are better in the spring than they are now.

Mirza Teletovic is playing very good basketball early in the season. Even his down game against the Wolves was as good as an average game for him a year ago.

By: Anthony Pignatti 

The Brooklyn Nets (then New Jersey Nets) selected Bojan Bogdanovic with the 31st pick in the 2011 NBA draft. After three years playing overseas with Fenerbahce Ulker, he’s finally coming to play in the NBA after accepting a three-year, $10.3 million deal – according to ESPN.

Bogdanovic, listed at 6’8 216 lbs, offers the Nets an added layer of versatility – a facet Billy King and the Nets have sought ever since the Nets moved to Brooklyn. He’s most noted as a SG/SF, but in today’s NBA, he could play PF as well. This flexibility gives coach Hollins the luxury of mixing and matching his lineups in a number of different ways to take advantage of mismatches. In addition, Bogdanovic’s 6’8 frame adds a unique combination of size and scoring ability to the wing positions, especially important with the departure of the 6’7 Shaun Livingston. The addition of another versatile European player fits right in with what the Nets and owner Mikhail Prokhorov are trying to accomplish, both as an on-court product and as a global brand.

Bogdanovic, put simply, can score – from anywhere. Though not regarded as a primary ball-handler, he is able to create off the dribble and penetrate defenses in the crafty European manner we’ve seen from others in the NBA (ie. Manu Ginobili). He has a smooth looking jump-shot and gets it off in a hurry. With that said, it’s worth noting his inconsistencies. His 3-point percentage dipped from above 40% in ‘12-’13 with Fenerbahce to below 30% the following season. It remains to be seen how his offense will translate to the NBA game, but a sizeable scorer is a welcomed commodity for the Nets – especially with Paul Pierce suiting up in Washington next year.

With the Nets down three rotational players (and possibly more) from last season – Livingston, Blatche, and Thornton – Bojan has an opportunity to fill one of many potential roles for the upcoming season. Contingent on Hollins’ desired style, there are a number of interchangeable lineups that could have a significant impact on how the Nets play and their success doing so. The majority of the roster, along with Bogdanovic, can play 2 or even 3 positions. This leaves Hollins with an abundance of options at his disposal.

Here are some of the potential scenarios Bogdanovic could help the Nets next season:

Bogdanovic will almost certainly come off the bench in a reserve role for the 2014-2015 season. He could have an opportunity to fill the void left behind by Marcus Thornton – the lightning rod scoring punch off the bench. If Hollins envisions Jack playing alongside Williams in a starter’s role, there’s an opportunity for Bogdanovic to input instant offense as the backup wing to Jack and Joe Jesus.

Livingston’s departure leaves an expectant need in the backcourt and Jack will probably assume that role. However, Bogdanovic could be a better compliment to Williams’ game moreso than Jack. If he develops quickly, it’s possible he could eventually see starters’ minutes next to Williams. This gives the Nets a notable size advantage at the SG position. Couple his size and shooting ability, he may prove to be a very tough cover for teams with smaller guards, similar to the advantage Joe Johnson’s sees consistently.

Prior to Brook’s injury, the idea was to surround him with shooters and force defenses to collapse. Unfortunately, nothing other than Brook’s foot collapsed, forcing the Nets to play a completely different style by starting Pierce at PF. If Hollins implements a similar approach next season and Bogdanovic improves his shooting consistency, the Nets may have found their latest 3-point weapon. A mobile, knock-down shooting 6’8 SF can definitely help this team’s offense.

Possible but probably unlikely is the idea that Bojan could see minutes at PF next season. However, Bogdanovic’s defense is certainly at a lower standard than his offense, and his slender frame and underwhelming rebounding numbers while with Fenerbahce make this scenario unlikely. Still, teams have downsized their PFs for shooters, making this not out of the realm of possibilities. It’s plausible to think he could have a role as a stretch 4 in this league.

And of course, Bojan could simply not translate to the NBA at all. He lacks lateral quickness, a necessary skill required of guarding most NBA wings. His shooting inconsistencies, primarily from 3-point range, is worrisome. And he may never be able to find a consistent 23-foot range jumper.

Adding Bojan Bogdanovic adds another capable shooter to the current Net roster, along with size and versatility the Nets often covet. If Bogdanovic proves reliable as nothing other than a consistent shooter and at least a marginal defender, the Nets should be pleased with their European prospect. More dominos need to fall to have a clearer picture on how Bogdanovic may fit in with the Nets’ roster next season – but it’s clear he’ll have a number of opportunities for the sheer versatility he brings.

By: Anthony Pignatti

The Brooklyn Nets have agreed to terms on a three-team deal that would send G Marcus Thornton to Boston in exchange for G Jarrett Jack and 20 year-old Russian G Sergey Karasev from Cleveland – as reported by numerous media outlets.

The departure of Shaun Livingston via free agency leaves a glaring hole in Brooklyn’s backcourt. This move is made under the initial assumption that Jack will help fill that need and be paired alongside Deron Williams for the start of the 2014-2015 season. Jack, a combo guard out of Georgia Tech, averaged 9.5 ppg on 41% shooting and 4.1 apg in a subpar year with Cleveland last season.

At 30 years of age, the 10-year veteran provides the Nets with another ball distributor and a situationally sound shot-maker. He is capable of running offense for his teammates as well as creating scoring opportunities for himself. Lionel Hollins, newly introduced Brooklyn Nets coach, may plug Jack into the starting unit next to Williams, forming a duo combo-guard attack. If not, expect Jack to be utilized in a reserve role, spelling Deron Williams for the upcoming season.

Jarrett Jack is heading into the 2nd year of his $6.3 million annual contract. His guaranteed deal runs through 2015-16 with a team option for the 2016-2017 season. By trading Marcus Thornton’s $8.5 million expiring contract, the Nets did absorb some long-term money. What’s important is that the Nets did not add a contract that runs through 2016-2017, the summer Kevin Durant becomes a free agent. We can still dream, Nets fans.

In life, there are easy decisions, and there are difficult decisions.  A man confesses to the police that he shot another man in cold blood.  Should he go to prison? This is an easy question, with an easy solution.  Another man is buying a house.  Should he buy a more expensive house, increasing his money down his mortgage, because the market is good?  Or will he pay too much on the mortgage, compromise his cash flow too much?  So then he should buy a cheaper house, right?  That way he can make the bigger purchase down the road when he has more income, right?  But what if the market is good right now and he foregoes an opportunity at buying the dream house while it’s at its lowest price.

That is no easy decision.  That’s not as easy as “should a man who kills another man in cold blood go to prison.”

The man who does not know what house to buy: that’s Billy King, with a Deron Williams dilemma.

The name “Deron Williams” creates a firestorm, when used among the Nets fanbase.  The reactions to him could not be more different.  Some believe he is guaranteed to return to superstar form, so long as he rehabilitates his ankles.  Some believe he was never that good in the first place, and is way beyond redemption.  Some believe he’s simply average.  Some believe his statistics are deceiving, as advanced statistics are kinder to his performance than traditional ones.  The bottom line: Deron is something of a lightning rod, his mere mention guaranteed to generate dozens (or hundreds!) of opinions, and what the Nets should and will do with him is really an open question.

And now: I make the case for why the Nets should keep him. A case that is in no way the absolute truth, or in no way the answer: this is, after all, a difficult issue.

The Facts We Can All Accept As True

I think any discussion around Deron has the same problem: nobody can agree on the most basic of facts (or opinions) concerning him, and it leads to a lot of, really, hot air.  The facts themselves are pretty simple, and are as follows.

Deron was brought to the Nets because Prokhorov and Billy King believed they needed to acquire a star to build the team around. At the time of the trade, Deron was near universally regarded as a top 10 player, and so acquiring him fit the bill. You could pull up any website, magazine, newspaper, or other player ranking from the time period, and derive the same result.  As bigger players with good jump shots tend to age well on the aggregate, the belief was that Deron would age well compared to Chris Paul and other elite guards (note: this article is written by Jonathan Tjarks, whose extremely well regarded).  So the Nets dealt for the 26 year old, did what they felt they needed to do to keep him in adding Johnson and Wallace, and then tried to help him more by adding Paul and Kevin.

However, by any objective measure, Deron has not been the player the Nets dealt for: they dealt for a top 10 player to lead the franchise, or at worst to devolve, by this point, perhaps into a mere top 15 player boosted by supporting parts.  Deron has not been that player, and has played well short of those standards.  Sure, it is true that advanced statistics are kinder to him than traditional ones: his on court—off court numbers were favorable, and the offense was more efficient when he was on the floor.  But all that indicates is that he’s been an above average player in Brooklyn: yea, not a mediocre one, but not even a good one, and nowhere near the great one his credentials indicated.  So, really, if anyone wants to wonder why the Nets did not meet expectations this season, they should look no further than that.

So basically, while many may disagree about Deron, a disagreement I believe is fair, there is one thing that everyone should agree on: he has not played to the level he needs to play at for the Brooklyn Nets.

Question 1: Why? Why Has He Underperformed

The answer to this question is as plain as day, but for whatever reason generates a whirlwind of responses on a regular basis: Deron has underperformed because of his troubling ankle injuries.

Deron has had fourteen – FOURTEEN – ankle injections since signing in Brooklyn.  While it is unclear when he got his first injection, he signed 22 months ago, and it is believed he got his first injection in October of 2012 (opening a 19 month window).  That’s a ton of injections.  At least once per game, it appears Deron tumbles to the ground, and simply cannot get up without help, and without a face looking like he got hit by a bus.  While it’s attributed to unluckiness, it’s routine to bump bodies during an NBA game.  Deron seems to come out of many of those bumps with ankle pain resulting from stepping on another foot, or a foot stepping on his, or pain for some reason.  A player who used to just blur by defenders, bully through people, can’t turn the corner.  Can’t elevate over bigs to finish layups.  Can’t dunk, when he used to just tomahawk on guys.

Maybe it’s because he has not suffered one significant, catastrophic moment of injury, which showed people that he really got hurt.  Maybe it’s because he is a malcontent, constantly surly with media, short with people, and seemingly always looking like the basketball court is the last place he wants to be.  But for whatever reason, it appears that nobody has accepted that Deron’s had chronic ankle injuries, and that those injuries have prevented him from playing elite basketball.

You tend to hear other reasons for why Deron is struggling so much in Brooklyn, playing so poorly, but they simply do not add up when scrutinized.

He can’t take the pressure?  Wasn’t there pressure in Utah when he was leading teams to the playoffs as the top dog: that pressure is still there.  And if it were just pressure, wouldn’t his struggles largely be confined to critical moments in games: kind of like how Chris Paul’s were in the playoffs?  Paul was excellent this postseason, but struggled mightily late in close games.  Perhaps that’s a guy dealing with pressure issues?  Deron? Whether it was game 4 against Miami on national television, or a random Tuesday in Sacramento in November, he was mightily struggling.  Pressure simply does not account for Deron struggling all the time, no matter how insignificant the moment this season.

He does not want it enough, dislikes being in Brooklyn, or does not want to be the man?  I think that was true in 2011-2012 (in New Jersey).  In Deron’s final season in New Jersey, he had no desire for being there, which was clear.  He provided no leadership.  He played no defense.  He largely floated through games.  But guess what?  Deron still dropped 21 and 9 in that season, and made a huge impact on games on the offensive end.  That Nets team was brutal: just look at the roster and remember that Brook missed all but 5 games (the Nets went 3-2 in those 5 games, by the way).  They only won games, going 22-44 and not totally wreaking because Deron was a really good offensive player.  As I said, he certainly had his flaws: he totally mailed the season in from a defense, effort, and leadership perspective.  But he was able to do his thing offensively, really on talent alone.  If Deron’s issues in Brooklyn were related to those issues, one would theoretically expect his play to mirror his 2011-2012 play, or something close to it.  Why hasn’t it?  Because, that tomahawk jam link above was a highlight from 2011-2012: Deron had healthy ankles that season.

Sure, Deron has flaws besides his ankles, and those flaws are all worth noting.  He’s had same late game goofs and lapses in concentration.  His defense was never a strong suit.  He can tend to coast through games, even when healthy.  Those problems explain in part why the Nets dealt for Paul and Kevin to provide leadership, for that matter.  But the thing is that were he healthy, he’d clearly be a much better player.  His other issues, while not ideal, would be things one could live with.

The moral of the story: it is clear that, by and large, Deron’s struggles in Brooklyn have been caused by his ankle issues.

Question 2: How Do the Nets FIX the Problem?

Here is where things get tricky.  For any problem in this world, our goal as humans is simple: solve the problem.  To solve the problem, you gather facts, and you identify what is happening: we have done that.  But then the Nets have to ask themselves.  Deron is 30 years old in a month.  His play in Brooklyn has suffered due to ankle injuries.  What do they do?  There are essentially two choices: keep him, and hope he returns to form.  Or deal him, acquiring value.

And before I make the case for keeping him, I will say that the reasons for dealing him are compelling, are reasons the Nets must consider, and in all likelihood will consider.

First, if the Nets keep Deron, they are banking on a player struggling from ages 28-29, then returning to form for ages 30-32 (and beyond).  The list of players who were excellent early in their careers, struggled with injuries, and then failed to resurge, even if the injury did not immediately kill their careers, is plentiful.  Guys like Gilbert Arenas, Jermaine O’Neal, Steve Francis, Amare Stoudemire, Allan Houston, Baron Davis, Chris Webber, and Grant Hill come to mind.

The Nets would be gambling on Deron not being one of those pieces by keeping him.  In addition, if his ankles worsen, and his production worsens, they would be potentially passing up on the best return possible for him.

Still, I will make the case for keeping Deron Williams in Brooklyn.

The case is simple: as Daryl Morey says, you have to take risk.  Realistically, many of the trade offers being thrown around for Deron by the fanbase (and perhaps by our staff, including myself) are pipe dreams.  Under this new CBA, most teams have placed a premium on financial flexibility.  In addition, teams no the best path to contention is acquiring a star, and they are doing everything they can to make sure that their flexibility corresponds with the availability of franchise changing pieces … like Durant in 2016.  A team acquiring Deron eats into their Durant cap space trove (and you better believe teams are targeting that summer), takes on an awful contract, and has to hope Deron’s ankles become healthy.  Plus, they are dealing for essentially an above average player at this moment.

Translation: do not expect a rich return for Deron in a deal.  It’s simply going to get tough to extract value.  Teams are not going to want to pay for the 2011-2012 Deron, but for this current Deron.  Expect a mix of role players, and bad contracts.

Which goes to the point of risk.  The best case scenario in dealing Deron is acquiring perhaps two solid role players to add to the roster.  In no way does Deron get dealt for a star.  Even if he gets dealt for a good player, that player is likely to have an atrocious contract which hampers the team going forward: what does that accomplish?  That’s, really, the best reward out there for Deron on the market.

Keeping him? Sure, there is risk in him declining even further.  But at the same time, prior to 2012-2013, Deron was expected to get surgery after the 2012-2013 season to deal with ankle issues.  He did not.  He averaged 22 and 8 in the second half of the season, and looked like who he was.  He thought ankle issues were over.  He thought wrong.

But here is the thing.  The reward in dealing Deron is truly minimal.  The Nets would essentially acquire role players.  It’s painful to admit, but a Nets team built around Joe and Brook, with a bunch of role players, is not a contender.  If you deal Deron you cement yourself into two years of that.

The reward of keeping Deron?  What if he gets surgery, and that surgery is exactly what his ankles need.  PRP treatment worked in 2012-2013 when they hit the right spot: perhaps at this point surgery is the answer.  Then you truly may have a contender on your hands.  Is it definite he resurges to form?  No way!  Is it probable?  I even doubt that.  But it is a material possibility.  He’s not even 30 years old yet.  He’s built, given his style and jump shooting ability, as a player whose skills should age well if healthy.   The chance Deron returns to form if his body allows him to actually play, is a real one.

Remember, for all teams, the easiest path to a roster rebuild is a star.  There is no way the Nets get a star in a Deron trade.  Keeping him.  Now, there IS a chance at a star, if he gets his health back.  That is a chance the Nets should not forfeit by trading him for the Jeremy Lin’s of the world – and I say this as one of Lin’s biggest fans and most aggressive defenders.

Maybe trading Deron feels satisfying, because of his surly attitude, his seeming inability to warm up to Brooklyn given his emotions.  But at the end of the day, the NBA should never be reactionary: it should simply be about what is best for the franchise.  “I’m tired of him,” “he pisses me off,” “I don’t care if it makes us worse”: who cares what emotion we get to let out if he is traded.  At the end of the day, all that matters is the win-loss record on the court.  With no cap space on the horizon as I outline here, the Nets cannot replace any of their players, for the most part, on the free agent market.  From now until 2016 when their window reopens to spend, they are locked into their current core, or what those players can be traded for.  And what Deron can be traded for, given the receiving team has to assume his deal and will look to charge the Nets in assets, or be cheap in what they provide, accordingly, is not enough to justify what he may be able to provide.

Essentially, the Nets’ ceiling is higher with Deron than without him simply because the hope that he can reverse the course of his bad ankle injuries is a very real one, and with the goal being a championship despite the limits on their ability to improve, the Nets should not get rid of Deron in a ceiling compromising deal.

If the Nets do not deal Deron, and miss out on a couple of decent rotation players, we’ll wonder how far those role players could have lifted the Joe Johnson led Brooklyn Nets, as compared to an above average point guard.  Considering how far from the championship this year’s Nets were, I doubt the answer is promising.

If the Nets do deal Deron, and surgery invigorates his ankles?  They’ll regret it forever.