Category Archives: Analytics

It is time for leg three of this series.  As the Nets scour the league for talent, who is a realistic add? From that group, who helps? 

For today’s leg of the series, it is on to Beantown, a place that has pillaged the Nets present and future. 

The Celtics figure to be at a crossroads of sorts this season. In all likelihood, they will be fresh off a second round or conference finals exit, with the Nets’ top 3 pick in tow. The question: how do the Celtics take the next step, from very good to great?

In al likelihood, the number one pick does not elevate the Celtics past the Cavs next year; top picks typically are not that impactful initially. And with the Celtics asset trove, and financial flexibility — they have over $40 million in cap space without factoring in their Nets pick or options to spare parts — Boston can do real damage this summer. And with multiple stars on the market potentially, the Celtics will look to add big name talent to surround their core of Thomas, Horford, Smart, Crowder, and Bradley.

At the same time, Thomas Bradley and Smart are free agents next summer (2018), with Crowder hitting the 2019 market — and each is in line for a significant raise. The Celtics should keep this group together and use their assets to launch from 53-65 wins, rather than go backward, and they will likely try to carry out that intent.

What does that mean? That means the non core Celtics pieces are prone to being snatched, given the bigge priorities. The above doesn’t even factor in money earmarked for Ante Zizic and Gerschon Yabusele, first rounders they stashed last year. 

So with all of those financial and big name considerations, can other parts of the roster be poached?

Let’s start with Kelly Olynyk. Olynyk is a restricted free agent, but with all the money earmarked for Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Smart, and big name trade or free agent acquisitions, he may become too rich for Boston’s blood. Olynyk has been a consistent 35% three point shooter in Boston, his 15 and 8 averages per 36 averages are solid, and he is a competent athlete who plays good positional defense. He has not improved much since year 2, and the Nets would be paying for his age 26-30 seasons, but if Lopez is traded for future assets, he can play an expansive offensive big role for Brooklyn.

With all restricted free agents, the likelihood is the incumbent team will match. And surely, with many big money decisions not up until 2018, the Celtics may match any Olynyk offers and look to move him if need be down the road. However, with the financial flux they will soon be in, and his role as a non core piece, he is worth an offer. Olynyk is not solving any problems in Brooklyn, and there is worry that he will not improve, will be pushing 30, and that his numbers are inflated by Stevens’ system. Still, why not offer $50-60 million over four years and see if it sticks?

Next is Tyler Zeller, who the Celtics have a team option on for next year. They have to decide by July 2, and may decline the option to open up better alternatives. Zeller has regressed and has seen his playing time take a dip. There are real questions as to his place on the roster, and I don’t see Boston retaining him. The Nets may be well served offering him a small, make good offer to see if they can salvage his career; he would certainly earn more playing time. 

From there, James Young, Demetrius Jackson, and Jordan Mickey sit at the end of the roster; the Celtics have small options on the latter two. I do not expect them to let Jackson go but if they do, he is a young point guard who, while he has done next to nothing, has strong per 36 stats. You can never have enough ball handlers in Atkinson’s offense. Mickey has struggled, but Young has finally shown flashes this year and may be worth a longer look.

The Celtics’ desire to spend in other places also may lead to financial decisions in the second round of the draft. The Celtics have three second round picks this year, from Minnesota, the Los Angeles Clippers, and Cleveland. Those picks would currently fall at 39, 52, and 56 in the draft. With so many financial decisions ahead, the Celtics may decide to trade out of some of that stock, and the Nets should see if there is an opportunity there for another shot at the dartboard. 

Lastly, the Celtics are likely not a big trade option for Brooklyn. With their goal of adding stars, it makes little sense for the Celtics to take the Nets veteran money on. They want George or Butler for the Nets pick, so drop your Lopez for the pick ideas — would you make that deal as Boston? 

The Celtics cut the Nets with a knife in 2013. But maybe the Nets can start using their parts to start picking the pieces up this summer.  

This is a second of what will become 29 articles covering the Nets’ free agency and trade options this summer, as related to all 29 foes across the league.  Which players may be poachable?  Which are a lock not to come to Brooklyn? What shots can the Nets take?

As stated in the first article, about the Hawks’ assets, the Nets’ mission this summer is simple.  This needs to be operation load up on as many under 25 assets as possible.  That means employing all means possible to find them.  First rounders, second rounders, D leaguers, international players? You name it, the Nets must try it.

So what do the Mavericks have to offer the Nets?

First, despite sitting in lottery position, the Mavericks are not going to outright tank, as Dirk Nowitzki plans to play next year.  Mark Cuban has always believed in trying to win to build and maintain a culture, and he is not going to start tanking now.

Nevertheless, while not outright tanking, the Mavericks have made a concerted effort to get younger around Dirk.  The plan in Dallas seems clear: rebuild, while trying to remain both competitive, and flexible enough to make a big strike on the market.

So what can the Nets poach from the Mavericks?

The answer, unfortunately, is not all that much; but the Nets can explore. 

The Mavs will have a first round pick this year.  The pick is currently at slot 10.  Their second rounder will likely go to the Sixers by virtue of the Nerlens Noel deal (their first rounder in the deal is top 18 protected and becomes a second otherwise).  The Mavs thereafter likely have their complement of draft picks, and own the Warriors’ 2019 second rounder.

Perhaps the Nets can try to acquire the Mavs’ first rounder; but that appears highly unlikely.  The Mavs have Noel, who fits like a glove next to Dirk given the way Tyson Chandler once fit as a rebounder and shot blocker.  As such, they likely have no interest in Lopez.  Absent Lopez, the Nets simply lack the ammo to even THINK of acquiring the 10th pick in the draft. Efforts in that regard are likely to be a dead end.

From there, there is another angle to explore: do the Mavericks see Dwight Powell (and perhaps even AJ Hammons or Jose Barea) as dead money at this juncture?  The Mavericks will have little flexibilty this summer.  When you factor in Dirk’s return, the 10th pick, and Yogi Ferrell’s and Dorian Finney-Smith’s team options, and the Mavs have just a smidgen under $12 million in cap space before factoring in Nerlens’ Noel’s cap hold of nearly $10.9 million, and the Mavs essentially have no cap space this summer. Their only way to get any space, really, is to dump some dead or near dead money, like Powell’s contract.

For the Nets, that is worth exploring.  However, there does not appear to be much traction to get something done.  The Mavs are trying to get younger, and the 10th pick is a huge chip for them to do that.  They would have to be senile to deal that pick just to dump Powell.  After that, the Mavs have a mix of second round picks, and low end rosterable youth.  At some point, cap space matters as well, and Powell’s three years are simply not worth fringe youth.  Perhaps the Nets can try to squeeze a distant future first for Powell: again, however the Mavs would be crazy to do that, especially considering that they cannot add a star in free agency this summer with the money that a move would generate. 

In addition, while the Mavs have a history of not valuing lower end youth, their second rounder is already Philly’s, thanks to the Noel trade.  Obtaining a second rounder here is not an option.

Nicolas Brussino, an undrafted power forward, is on the Mavs’ bench, doing little this year. The Mavs may let him go, but his per 36 numbers are subpar.

Otherwise, the Mavs have Finney-Smith as a young talent and are not likely to decline his option. If they do, he is worth a look for the Nets because he has shown flashes of talent.

Lastly, of course, Noel is a restricted free agent, so the Nets, in theory, can make him an offer.  However, the Mavs brought him in to build in part around him, and will match any offers.

The Nets will look to improve this summer.  The Mavericks are  not a likely source of that improvement.

This article will begin a series of articles looking at all 30 teams, and the Nets’ options for improvement this summer by trying to poach talent from those teams.  First up? The Atlanta Hawks. 

Each article will start with the Nets’ asset situation, before delving into the team at the focus of the article.

I. The Nets’ asset situation

The Nets head into the 2017 offseason with something they did not have in 2016: options.

The Nets pick twice in this year’s first round: at press time, the picks would come in at 24 and 26.

Next comes cap space.  The cap is estimated to be at $102,000,000, with the luxury tax at $122,000,000. he Nets owe $63.1 million in guaranteed salary to eight pieces for next year, including dead money: Lopez, Lin, Booker, LeVert, Hollis-Jefferson, Whitehead, Nicholson, and Hamilton.

That $38.9 million difference, however, does not tell the whole story because of options and cap holds.  First, using the new rookie scale, there are cap holds for whatever rookies the Nets draft in round 1.  Essentially, the hold cuts into the Nets’ cap space, to the amount of the hold — the hold is replaced with the pick’s salary after he is signed. If we assume no trades, and their picking at 24 and 26, the cap holds would total $3.1 million.

Second, the Nets have five team options, for Sean Kilpatrick, Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Quincy Acy, and Randy Foye, totaling $9.8 million against the cap.  They only must decide on Kilpatrick and Harris before free agency.  Even assuming both are waived, the Nets would only save approximately $700,000, as the Nets would be assessed incomplete roster charges, so the Nets would have $9.1 million  counting against the cap.  Similarly, if the Nets were to decline their options on Dinwiddie, Acy, and Foye, they would be assessed approximately $815,615 in incomplete roster charges per roster slot.  All told, the Nets will have between $4.1 million and $9.8 million counting against the cap, in the form of a combination of incomplete roster charges and team options.

Finally, Randy Foye has a $3 million cap hold; I expect the Nets to renounce him, so I will not include that.  In addition, there are no holds for second rounders, so buying a pick will not affect their cap room (they can sign the pick after free agency).

All told, assuming they pick 24th and 26th, the Nets will have between $26 million and $31.7 million in cap space, depending on how many of their option pieces they pick up or decline.

That, in actuality, is not much cap space.  Max contracts range from 25-35% of the cap depending on player experience; the smallest max contracts will hit $25.5 million.  And just look at salaries that went out last summer — $26-$32 million (or thereabouts) will not get the Nets very far).

The following players earned over $20 million: Nicolas Batum, Dwyane Wade,Chandler Parsons,

The following players were $15-$20 million men: Ian Mahinmi, Evan Turner, Evan Fournier, Jeff Green, Kent Bazemore, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Harrison Barnes, Ryan Anderson

The following players were $10-$15 million guys: Solomon Hill, Arron Afflalo, Marvin Williams, Maurice Harkless, Miles Plumlee, Rajon Rondo, Austin Rivers

Even pure backups, like DJ Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, Matthew Dellavedova, Darrell Arthur, Jon Leuer, E’Twaun Moore, Dwight Powell, Garrett Temple, Cole Aldrich, Gerald Henderson, Jared Dudley, earned between $7-11 million per.

What do these numbers mean? They mean that the Nets’ cap space is not much of a weapon, in the short term. In short, the Nets can either get — assuming the players want to be here — one non star max player (like a Paul Millsap or George Hill), perhaps two high level role players (like a Kentavious Caldwell Pope and Patrick Patterson), at best.

The problem? That leaves the Nets with their current roster, plus pieces like that, and with little room to get better. Also known as no man’s land.

All told, that is why the Nets would be better off using their cap space another way: to absorb bad contracts in exchange for what they truly need – draft picks.  The Nets need under 25 talent, and draft picks to add more of that talent.  They do not need to try to win now.

Signing Paul Millsap, George Hill, or Milos Teodosic?  That makes a splash.  But it does not actually get the Nets anywhere.

Using cap space to add the Wizards’ first round pick and to get a free look at KJ McDaniels?  Nobody is winning the headline with those moves.  But those are the type of moves the Nets need to make right now.

And now, on to the Atlanta Hawks.

I. The Atlanta Hawks

The Nets have real opportunities to mine through the Hawks’ roster in an effort to get better.

The Hawks are a mid tier playoff team and appear intent to continue trying to win going forward.  In a quiet, understated way, the Hawks are similar to the Oakland Athletics of the early 2000’s: they like to continue to produce talent from the cupboard, and will not hesitate to move on from talented pieces in the hope that a cheaper replacement will provide equivalent or close to it production, at lower cost.

Trading Lou Williams, despite being a playoff team, was one quiet example.  More recently, Jeff Teague and Al Horford revealed two louder examples.  Rather than keep Teague despite his production, the Hawks traded him, with the logic that Dennis Schroder is not only productive, but that his current extension will be cheaper than the figure Teague gets this coming July.  In addition, there were murmurs that the Hawks did not offer Horford a max deal, in his departing last summer. The Hawks, ultimately, replaced Horford with Howard at, you guessed it, a much cheaper cost both annually and in terms of years.

Even the Tim Hardaway Jr. trade involving the Knicks was a money saver.

With that said, the Hawks have some serious financial choices to make, and a team like the Nets can take advantage.  For starters, their ownership is unlikely to approve paying the tax this coming summer, with the Hawks, in all likelihood, fresh off a first round defeat at the hands of Washington, Toronto, or Boston.

That creates some belt tightening realities in Atlanta.  Assume, for starters, that they successfully retain Paul Millsap by maxing him.  That puts the Hawks at $22.3 million shy of the luxury tax.  However, that figure does not include the following:

-contracts for their three picks this draft: at press time, the Hawks currently pick 19, 31 (the Nets’ second rounder), and 49.  That comes to $3 million in salaries if the players are all kept.

-new contracts for Tim Hardaway Jr., Mike Muscala, and Thabo Sefolosha

-Ryan Kelly’s $1.5 million nonguaranteed contract.

-new contracts for Ersan Ilyasova, Mike Dunleavy, and Kris Humphries

Simply put, if the Hawks keep Millsap at or near the max, they are at risk of losing some of these lower level pieces, or choosing to dump picks, simply due to the luxury tax. All told, without being in the Hawks’ war room, there is no way to know what they are thinking.  However, it seems unlikely that they keep all of their picks, and Hardaway Jr., and Muscala.

That opens a door for the Nets.  The 19 pick? That seems like an unlikely add, as the Hawks do not have any bad money on the books for the Nets to absorb.  But maybe the Hawks trade the 31st pick at low cost, as they need to tighten the books to keep Millsap and duck the tax.  Maybe they decide that the 49 pick is just not going to make an impact for them this year, and the Nets are able to buy the pick for cash.  The 49 pick is unlikely to help much, but the Nets NEED to take shots on any young talent they can find.  When Isaiah Thomas was taken 60, you cannot dismiss second round picks. Period.

Free agency may present opportunities as well.  Ilyasova, Sefolosha, and Humphries are outside the age bracket the Nets should target, and Ryan Kelly is under team control. Mike Dunleavy’s ire at going to a Hawks team that was not winning tells you all you need to know: that is not happening. And Paul Millsap is either staying put or going to a winner.

However, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Mike Muscala are intriguing pieces for the Nets to look at. 

As for Hardaway, he is only 24 years old, so he would be signing with the Nets to provide his prime years, rather than to watch his prime pass. His three point shooting has improved. His defense has even improved as a Hawk.  Hardaway would be a big upgrade for the Nets on the wing, and could grow with their core.

Is he restricted? Sure.  Did the Nets strike out on that market? Sure.  But that raises another point: no matter how many times Marks strikes out with restricted free agents, he should not stop trying.  Opportunity cost defines whether anyone should enter any transaction.  The Nets, given their record, are not a destination for any relevant unrestricted free agents.  So, while restricted free agent offers ties up cap space, the only cost to the Nets is a more limited ability to look at dime a dozen reserves.  Given the ability to get core pieces in restricted free agency if a team does not match, that opportunity cost is more than worth the chance of getting a quality player — even if the chance is small.

In addition, given the likelihood teams match on restricted free agents, you have to play the odds, and try to find free agents where there is a chance that the incumbent balks.  The chance is NEVER 100%, but there IS a chance with Hardaway Jr .  If the Hawks keep Millsap, given their financial crunch, they may balk at keeping Hardaway Jr.  If Millsap leaves, the Hawks may decide to retool, and decide that cap space is more valuable than a hefty deal to Hardaway Jr.

So, if the Nets target Hardaway Jr., is there a guarantee they get him? Of course not.  But they have a puncher’s chance, which is all they can ask for.

As for Muscala, I am not as high on him, but he is worth a look if the salary and years are prudent.  At 26, and in season 4, it is unlikely that he improves over the life of a contract.  In addition, while he is shooting well this year and overall in his career, he was atrocious last year, and whether that occurs again would be a lingering concern.  However, he would be a nice fit on the Nets’ bench, has a relationship with Kenny Atkinson, and would fit the offense.

All told, the Atlanta Hawks figure to lose in the first round and face a summer of some uncertainty, and many decisions on who stays, who goes, and what picks come in.  The Nets have a chance to pounce. 

The Brooklyn Nets are 10-51. Sure, Jeremy Lin has missed most of the season.  Alas, the Nets’ record speaks for itself.  At 10-51, it has to be admitted that the Nets, at this time, are far off from playoff contention.

In addition to being far off from contention, the Nets’ record dictates two truths:

1: they are not going to be contenders in 2017-2018, either

2: they are not going to be able to build a contender through free agency.

A quick look at every champion since 1991 (taking Michael Jordan’s breakthrough as a time marker, and a method to build a larger sample) is revealing. 24 of the 26 NBA champions in that span either won the championship the year before, or went no worse than 47-35 the year before breaking through.  The lone exception was the 2008 Boston Celtics, who went 24-58 before breaking through.  However, the Celtics did that largely by trading a cadre of young assets for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, in Al Jefferson, Jeff Green, Gerald Green, Sabeastian Telfair, Ryan Gomez (all assets at the time) and two future first round picks.  The Celtics STILL had Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins, to grow in house.

The Nets, simply, are not close to as good as any of those teams.  Even the 2007 Celtics, at 24-58, won more than this Nets team figures to win, and it had infinitely more valuable young assets to throw into deals, as well as a star in house in Paul Pierce.

Translation: do not expect the Nets to build a contender in the summer of 2017.  That simply is not reasonable.  Unless you are a near contender already, or have a superstar in house with a horde of assets to acquire a second superstar and a third star, you are not going to build a contender in one offseason.

In addition, history tells us you cannot buy a contender in free agency.  Just look at the roster of all of the title winners since Jordan’s 1991 breakthrough.  Jordan’s six championships were won around Jordan (drafted), Pippen (acquired as a draft pick before playing a NBA game), Horace Grant and Toni Kukoc (drafted), and Dennis Rodman (acquired via trade).  The 1994 and 1995 Rockets were built around a draft pick in Olajuwon, and a slew of role players they traded for (and later Clyde Drexler, who was traded for).  Otis Thorpe, a role player, was the biggest free agent add. In more modern times, the five Spurs titles were built around Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and Leonard, all of whom were drafted.  The 2015 Warriors, similarly, drafted every core component.  The more modern Lakers two peat was built around Kobe and Bynum (drafted) and Gasol and Odom (traded for).  The 2006 Miami Heat drafted Wade and dealt for Shaq.  The 2004 Pistons acquired everyone by trade other than Tayshaun Prince, who they drafted.  The aforementioned Celtics surrounded the drafted Pierce who Garnett and Allen, both acquired for draft picks and young talent. The 2011 Mavs surrounded drafted Dirk Nowitzki with role players.

In reality, the only champs arguably built via free agency were LeBron’s Heat and Shaq’s Lakers.  Even then, look at the facts.  LeBron and Bosh came to Miami to play with Wade, who the Heat drafted.  The Heat acquired a transcendent superstar and a second superstar in free agency by using a drafted superstar as a carrot.  And Shaq’s Lakers drafted star 2, in Kobe, another transcendent star.  Sure, the Warriors may win it all in 2017, but they added a superstar to a 73 game winner.

Translation: if you want to build a champion around free agency acquisitions, you better have a superstar in house, and then acquire a transcendent superstar; or you need to add a superstar to an already title level core.

Translated more clearly: that is  not something to bet on.

All of this shows that the Nets likely trade Brook Lopez this summer. For starters, the Nets are two years away from contending for even a playoff spot, at best.  More concerning: we are in the era of talent wanting to play with other talent, not wanting the largest role. That killed the Nets last free agency, and likely would again next summer.

Just look at what happened last summer, using this ranking of free agents as a guide. The premier unrestricted free agents on the list did not even consider the Nets: they wanted to win.  Kent Bazemore and Marvin Williams considered, but turned down, the Nets.  That left the Nets in a precarious position.  The Nets decided hey, if the best unrestricted free agents to talk to us are bench players, then we may as well try our hand at restricted free agents: the worst that can happen is we miss out on eighth men.  However, as fans saw last summer, the problem with restricted free agency is that typically, when push comes to shove, teams decide, when faced with keeping or losing their asset, to keep their asset.

Sure, Marks and Atkinson are more entrenched in their roles now than last year.  But free agents pick wins, not coaches and GM’s.  It is hard to expect Marks to dive into this summer’s free agent class, and secure a better result. Just look at the free agent class and ask yourself: how can the Nets be expected to build a contender around Lopez.  The Nets are currently TWENTY games worse than the East’s 8 seed.  Even if one assumes that gap does not grow (it should grow, as the Nets lose more often than the Pistons), the Nets would need to make up twenty games in free agency just to become a playoff team.  How does one expect that to happen?

Here are this summer’s free agents. Durant and Curry are not moving, and Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Paul Millsap, Dwyane Wade, Pau Gasol, and Andre Iguodala, and JJ Redick, if they move, will move to a winner (unless Wade decides to go back to Miami). The same likely goes for Jrue Holiday, but if he cannot win with Cousins and Davis, he is going to win with Lopez?  Serge Ibaka is starting the downside of his career, and is not boosting the Nets to win 20 more games.  Jeff Teague is overrated. Greg Monroe has never fit on a good team; and Rudy Gay has often disappointed in that regard. Dirk Nowitzki is staying in Dallas.

George Hill also is not the answer, despite the fan love at the moment.  Hill, in any event, would seek $25-$31 million a year from the Nets, who have $38 million in cap space before accounting for team options.  He is a nice complementary part who fit perfectly in Utah, a team that had everything but a point guard.  The Nets on the other hand need everything.  Hill has never carried a franchise, and would be expected to carry the Nets, who would blow their present and future flexibility just to add him.  A team built around Hill, Lopez, and filler is not winning more than 30-35 games at best; capping yourself out with that is not the plan. And all of this assumes Hill considers Brooklyn anyway.

Is any other restricted free agent on the list even worth discussing, as far as “needle moving” is concerned? From there, the Nets can turn to restricted free agents, but teams always match those.  The Wizards figure to win a playoff series this year, and maybe two.  They will match all Otto Porter offers; that pipe dream should die today. Mason Plumlee and Nerlens Noel were acquired this February to be retained; they’re going nowhere.

There are other restricted free agents to look at.  I expect the Pistons to match any offer on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but unlike as with Porter, I do not see that as a 100% certainty.  Caldwell-Pope, however, is likely the BEST free agent the Nets can obtain, and he is on a sub .500 team that has more talent than these Nets have.  He will help, but he will not bring the Nets into the realm of competitive. JayMychal Green and Tim Hardaway Jr are nice young pieces to look at, as is Kelly Olynyk: none are making these Nets competitive. The Thunder manage their balance sheet so Andre Roberson may be worth a look, but his warts would be exposed even more here than with the talent he’s played with in OKC.  Nikola Mirotic may be poachable, but has not been good; the same goes for Shabazz Muhammad. And I suppose the Nets can try to reacquire Bojan Bogdanovic but we know he does not make these Nets good. Jonathan Simmons is a reserve.  Alex Len? Yikes.

Translation: there is no clear path from 10-51 to the playoffs if the Nets decide “let’s build a winner in free agency around Brook Lopez.” The reason is stunningly simple: good free agents want to play for good teams.

With that, the Nets strategy should not be to build a winner in free agency around Lopez. Rather, their strategy should be about replenishing their bare cupboard of assets. As history tells us, if you are going to build a winner, you are going to do it through a mix of drafting elite talent, and trading for elite talent.  Free agency is not going to be your source of elite talent, but, rather, a source of supplementing that elite talent with good fits.  Even IF you build a winner through free agency, you are only going to do it by surrounding an elite player, or elite group of players, that you acquired previously by other means. Do NOT EXPECT to hit free agency with Brook Lopez or worse and hit it big.

The Nets, therefore, must fill the cupboard of assets this summer.  Trade Lopez for draft picks and kids.  See what the market may or may not bear for Trevor Booker, and Jeremy Lin, even if the calls are only exploratory.

As for free agency? The Nets should not sit out.  But on a market where non superstars get $25-$30 million, their $38 million is not worth much.  Use the money on under 25 pieces whom you believe can grow with your kids over the years.  Suppose you add a Tim Hardaway Jr.  You have him for his age 24-28 seasons.  He can grow with what you grow.

The Nets, after identifying pieces like that, should consider: why spend all of the salary cap space on free agents?  Rather than waste funds (aside from a couple of “show the kids the ropes” veterans) on non under 25 pieces, the Nets should see if they can use their cap space to acquire bad contracts, in exchange for draft picks, a la the Wizards trade this deadline.  By taking Nicholson’s poisonous deal on the Nets nabbed another first rounder.  In that regard, the Nets need to scour the league: who has bad contracts they may need to dump?

Furthermore, second round picks matter. Sure, most of them fail.  But if a second round pick succeeds, you have a cost controlled young talent that can grow with your core.  Should the Nets deal Lopez for a second rounder? No! But, if they can cheaply acquire second round picks — OR first round picks — they should.  Teams are always facing financial crunches in team building.  If a team decides we need to dump a second round pick, the Nets should take advantage.  

The Nets did that last summer: with so much talent in house and being added last summer, the Utah Jazz simply could not afford to add a 42 pick in the 2016 draft.  Accordingly, the Nets effectively swindled Isaiah Whitehead for nothing but Marcus Paige, who has never played a NBA game, and cash. The Nets need to look at deals like that. 

So the plan this summer for the Nets is clear: look at young free agents.  Look to take bad deals on for assets.  Look to acquire picks at low cost.

And look to trade Brook Lopez to get significant assets for the rebuild.

As everyone knows and as The Vertical first reported, the Nets traded Bojan Bogdanovic and Chris McCullough to the Wizards for their 2017 first rounder, Andrew Nicholson, and Marcus Thornton.  Preliminarily, the Wizards’ pick is lottery protected, but they are well into playoff position, and it would currently convey at slot 24.  In addition, the Nets, per The Vertical, plan to waive Thornton on arrival.

This trade makes absolute sense for the Nets, for multiple reasons.

Bojan’s Contract Status:

Bojan is a restricted free agent this summer. He figures to command between 3-4 years, and $36-$60 million total (conservatively estimating) on his deal this summer.  The deal will page for his age 27-30 years.  Accordingly, the Nets had three options with Bojan: get value for him in a deal, pay him for his past 26 seasons, or lose him for no return whatsoever.  By taking option 1, the Nets get a return, which beats no return, and get a cost controlled first rounder who has room to develop, rather than paying a veteran.  For a 9-47 team that makes all the sense in the world.  Bojan is a good guy, and a nice shooter on the weakside, but he is a role player who does not defend.  9-47 teams need high upside kids, not veteran role players.  As the Wizards’ end of the deal shows, you can relatively easily acquire players like Bojan when you are competing; in your developmental years it does not make sense to clog your cap or minutes with those types of pieces.

The Market:

Some seem to believe the Nets should have received a first for Bojan, without taking Nicholson on.  That would reflect a lack of consideration of the market.  First rounders are at an absolute premium, especially when they come in the very next draft and that draft is considered “loaded.”  Second of all, just the day before the deal, the Lakers secured what is currently the 27 pick (and will be a lower pick than what the Nets got for Bojan) for Lou Williams.  Lou is better than Bojan, and teams around the league, it can be inferred from that and the way things were reported, clearly saw Lou as their first choice to upgrade their benches for the playoffs, and Bojan as their second choice.  Lou is not only better but has a better contract status: the acquiring team with Lou gets him for approximately $7 million next year, guaranteed, while the team acquiring Bojan, like the Nets pre-deal, is forced to pay him in the $12-$15 million a year range, or lose him for nothing.

To get a higher pick for Bojan than Lou, a better player on a better contract, is a big win for the Nets.

Sure, the Nets did take Nicholson’s poisonous deal on to finagle a pick this high — and really, they moved up a good 5-10 places in the draft here, it would appear.  However, multiple mitigating factors are at play given the Nets situation.  First, the cap is estimated to be $102 million next year.  Even if it stays flat at that figure going forward, Nicholson makes $6.3 million, $6.6 million, and $6.9 million over the next three years.  That is a bad contract considering he has been useless, but not that bad in light of how high the cap is.

Second, and of critical import: massive cap space only has value if stars and near stars want to play for you.  The Nets are the worst team in the league.  Nobody of import will see them as attractive in the summer of 2017.  They will chase restricted free agents like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and may garner interest from Jeremy Lin level free agents on occasion, but they are not going to be able to nail stars on this market.  The loss of cap space, therefore, this summer, is not much of a loss for the Nets — nobody is signing into it.

Getting beyond this summer, even if the Nets are a free agent hotbed in 2018 (and that is a reach), Nicholson by then will essentially on a 2 year, $13.5 million deal.  Suddenly, that does not seem like that awful of a contract to either let sit, trade, or stretch.

In short, the Nets gave up between $6.3 million and $6.9 million in cap space over three summers, but one of those summers matters little in that regard, and the Nets maximized the value of a draft pick in the process — the thing they really need.

The trade also provides one key thing: optionality.  Bojan on a big contract is what it is.  But now, with two picks in the 20’s, the Nets can develop two kids, package the picks, trade one for a 2018 pick, package one or both with a veteran, or the like.

 This trade shows that Marks understands that cap space is an asset, not just in the summer:

Marks was smart this summer not to waste cap space on players who would not help the team build going forward, just to spend his cap space.  Cap space need not just be used on free agents, but is also an asset during the season.  Marks was smart to preserve cap space for that purpose rather than adding players who do not help the cause in the long term.

Cap space is an asset in trades because when teams want to dump bad contracts, you can be their dumping ground, at a charge.  The Nets did that here with Nicholson, permitting Washington to relieve its books, at a charge of multiple draft places, at least.  Given the fact that the Nets lose no more than $6.9 million in cap space in one given summer, when the cap is over $102 million, and that in at least the coming summer the Nets aren’t a factor for free agents, that exchange is absolutely worth it, from their perspective.

This trade reflects a clear plan

Brook Lopez is a Net, surely.  But Sean Marks has now traded Thad Young and Bojan for kids and permitted Joe Johnson a buyout, to add Sean Kilpatrick. It is clear that he understands the need for Brooklyn to get younger.