Category Archives: Analytics

The Golden State Warriors may claim their second NBA title in three years.

And the Nets may claim some of their players this summer.

Heading into 2017-2018, the Warriors face the tightest of salary crunches, essentially because they have non-bird, rather than Bird, rights to Kevin Durant.

The short of the matter is that if Kevin Durant wants the max of $36.1 million, or any number above $31.8 million, then the Warriors will lose Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston, unless either is willing to take a substantial paycut.  As for the details, if Durant signs as a non-Bird free agent (they do not have full Bird Rights) for $31.8 million, the Warriors can retain their roster, largely in full.  However, Durant’s max is approximately $4.2 million above his non-Bird number, at around $36 million, so the Warriors would have to use cap space to sign him to any number between the $31.8 million and $36 million.  That would reduce their cap space to a number between $7.5-$12.6 million, as they would have $12.7 million in space if he signed as a non bird piece.  From there, the Warriors would be forced to renounce Andre Iguodala and Shawn Livingston, as their cap holds would exceed their cap space; both players would have to leave to make their market value, although, of course, both could take less to stay. From there, the Warriors would be forced to renounce one or two of McGee, McAdoo, Clark, Pachulia, and West.  If the Warriors wanted a slot around $4.5 million, they could get there by renouncing these players.

In short, Durant’s non-Bird status puts the Warriors in a position where they may lose some of their non top 4 guys due to a salary crunch.  In all likelihood, we will see the Warriors retain their big 4, but be forced to make changes on the edges.  They should still be dynastic, unless Iguodala and Livingston both leave (and even then, still could be).

So where can the Nets join the hunt for talent here? For starters, forget any pipe dreams about the Warriors big 4.  Draymond and Klay are not being traded.  Durant and Curry want to win and will likely stick together; if they leave (unlikely), it would be to win big somewhere else outside the other’s shadow.  Brooklyn is not an option; there is not a single relevant connection to a free agent’s analysis there.

The problem with the Warriors’ free agents is two fold. First, if any of them want to win at this stage (think Iguodala and West), the Nets are a non factor.  Second, the Warriors combine a world class offensive system that a coach could win with even with mediocre players, with the elite talent of the second and third best NBA players, and two top 15-25 players, that a coach could win with even running the world’s worst system.  Combine the system and talent level, and the Warriors are frighteningly good. That creates a question as to all of their free agents the Nets could touch: would they be as good, or close, in Brooklyn (or, really, anyplace outside Golden State), where they simply will not have the types of looks at the basket and creases in defenses that they have in Golden State?  Remember: if you sign, say, Ian Clark, you don’t get to bring Steve Kerr and Steph Curry with him.

Ian Clark is a good piece to look at in this prism.  Sure, he’s an over 36% three point shooter, and he is only 26.  But the Nets have several young point guards, and Clark shot 20% from three in 2015, his last season without the Warriors’ greatness skewing his numbers.  Is he really worth a 4 year, $25-$35 million deal?  I doubt it.

Unlike Clark, who makes we nervous because we have seen him be a non factor outside Golden State, James Michael McAdoo has never played anywhere else.  He has shown in his three years that he can shoot (despite poorer numbers this year), and play competently on both ends as a wing.  There is the concern with him, however, that his skills simply will not translate over to a lesser team. However, at just 24 years old, and with the Nets in need of quality forwards, I would give him a look this summer, if the money and years are manageable.  On paper, he is the type of restricted free agent that may be balked on (or the Warriors may not even make a qualifying offer).

Zaza Pachulia, however, is a piece to consider.  Unlike Clark, Pachulia has a pedigree of producing outside the machine that is the Warriors.  The Nets need a bruiser up front, and he could play that role.  He also, for whatever reason, has consistently been underpaid and undervalued by the league.  Whether the Nets keep or trade Brook Lopez, if they can get Pachulia for reasonable money (and more importantly, years), they should consider it.

Shaun Livingston, despite being a fan favorite, is a piece to be hesitant on.  If he leaves the Warriors, it could be a tell that he wants to start, or at least be closer in level to the starting point guard such that he has an increased role.  However, Livingston has quietly shown slippage in Oakland, a danger for a player about to turn 32, and his decline would not be masked in Brooklyn by a powerhouse of teammates.  And if he returns to Brooklyn, he will want a payday. No thank you there.

Kevin Looney and Daimon Jones are unlikely to be available this summer. The Warriors have them on tiny, cost controlled salaries, and they need as many of those as they can find, with a payroll likely looking at four monster salaries coupled with a dearth of picks.  However, they are young, live bigs with upside, so if the Warriors look to trade either to make an immediate term upgrade, the Nets should take a serious look at seeing if they can acquire either cheaply. The same goes for Pat McCaw as a forward (although, again, I see no reason for the Warriors to even contemplate dealing these cheaper contracts off).

Beyond that, there are no real options. JaVale McGee’s lack of discipline and character questions do not just go away because he produces with this group; how does that translate to a regular NBA team.  Poorly, based on past history.  No thank you.  Matt Barnes is the opposite of a character veteran, is not good anymore, and is not a fit in Brooklyn, even in the slightest.

Finally, the Warriors have no picks to trade until 2019, and it is hard to imagine the Nets being able to provide an upgrade that both warrants them to trade a pick, and that makes sense for the Nets.  Given the Warriors bloated salaries, they cannot absorb Lopez, Lin, or Booker because they cannot send much back.  A pick trade here feels unlikely.

With a dearth of high end lottery picks, a free agency market likely turned off by their 20-62 record (we have consistently seen the best talent choose the best teams as free agents), and a shortage of high end trade assets, the Nets must be creative in building their roster.  One thing they need to do is hunt for undervalued assets, and take advantage of teams that need to shed talent.

Enter the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz, quietly, need to assess if they are poised to become the “can’t break through” Clippers or Raptors in two years.  They are very good, but the question of whether they can move past the Warriors, Spurs, or Rockets, is very real.

The Jazz are locked into their current core barring a significant salary dump.  They have $36.3 million in cap space, not including cap holds.  However, they cannot renounce Hayward’s cap hold of $24,109,710 for simple economic reasons.  Cap holds cut your cap space, by the amount of the hold.  Therefore, if the Jazz do not renounce Hayward (but renounce everyone else), they will have $12,193,923 to spend on new pieces.  However, if they renounce him, that means they must use cap space to sign him.  Accordingly, if they were to renounce him, then max him at $30,600 (his max if he’s not “Designated Player” eligible), then they would have just $5.7 million to spend on new pieces.  Clearly, retaining his cap hold is the way to go. The same rationale applies to Hill’s cap hold.

The Jazz have to keep Hayward to maintain their forward momentum.  The only conceivable upgrade over Hill would be Kyle Lowry, but scoring him would require, in addition to renouncing Hill, the Jazz dumping one of Alec Burks or Derrick Favors for no return salary, which would create $22.5-$24 million in cap space to sign Lowry.  If the Jazz keep Hill, he and Hayward (assuming a 4 year, $90 million Hill deal, and non DPE max for Hayward) would make around $51 million next season — taking the Jazz payroll to $116.7 million, with four free agents in Diaw, Ingles, Withey, and Mack.  With the tax at $122 million, the Jazz would be forced to relinquish at least one of Diaw and Ingles, or else pay the luxury tax.  While they paid it near the end of the Deron era, they may decide, “how do we pay the tax in this market, and with the Cavaliers and Warriors as good as they are.” And going forward, while pieces like Favors and Burks will roll off the ledger, decisions will need to be made on pieces like Trey Lyles and Dante Exum.

All of this is a long way of saying that the Jazz face serious financial questions going forward as to who they want to commit to and how much they want to commit.

That is where the Nets can enter the picture. Sean Marks, and Dennis Lindsey, the Jazz’s GM, overlapped as assistants in San Antonio, and Marks can use that working relationship to his advantage.  Hayward is not leaving the Jazz for a lesser team like the Nets, and Hill does not align with the Nets timeline, so disregard those options.  Rudy Gobert is going nowhere.  Rodney Hood, due to his emergence, and Dante Exum, Trey Lyles, and Raul Neto, given their cost controlled deals, are also staying put.  Joe Johnson was also too huge for them to dump.  Beyond that, however, the picture is unclear.

However, the Nets can step in and poach the Jazz, to the extent that they cannot, or choose not to, keep their other pieces.

Favors and Burks are still talented players, and while they may not fit in Utah, they can thrive elsewhere. Favors has been a clutsy piece next to Rudy Gobert, who clearly joins Hayward and Hill as the Jazz’s core pieces.  With just one year left on his deal, the Jazz should be able to move him, if they choose to (and given the fit, they may seek picks and kids rather than paying him in 2018).  The Nets may not be able to bid enough: they have no picks to trade (nor should they trade picks), they should not trade LeVert, and Favors has real value.  However, they would be remiss not to at least see what they can do in that regard.

Burks could be another matter.  He flat out cannot stay healthy, had a poor season in 2017, and has two years left on his deal. However, he is just 26, and the Nets could look to add him on what is essentially a two year, $22.5 million contract, to see if he can live up to his contract.  The talent is there; it has just been hidden by bad health.  The Nets should see if he is available at low cost, or even if the Nets can charge an asset.  The Jazz have their full complement of picks, as well as the Warriors first rounder, and Pistons second rounder.  Perhaps the Warriors or Pistons pick would be available to the Nets as compensation for relieving the Jazz of Burks.  

Beyond Favors, Burks, and the Jazz picks, is Joe Ingles.  On one hand, Ingles was a significant piece in Utah this year, and the Jazz can dump salary to keep him or simply spend big to keep him.  On the other hand, Ingles may be a victim of the Jazz’ roster crunch.  The Nets should seriously explore inking Ingles as a restricted free agent to force Utah’s hand on him.

Also a piece warranting a big look: the always undervalued, still just 27 years old Jeff Withey.  Withey has been a competent reserve big for years, and thrived this season when Gobert was out.  The Jazz dropped off surely, but Withey was useful and proved himself as a fourth big.  Withey would be a huge upgrade over Justin Hamilton for the Nets.  The Jazz may keep him, but if he is also a roster crunch victim, the Nets should take a long look.

Lastly, Shelvin Mack is a competent reserve point guard.  A look at him to provide some insurance behind Jeremy Lin, if bigger targets do not come aboard, would be smart.

The other Jazz pieces likely make no sense.  Diaw wants to win at this stage, and likely stays in Utah or finds another team to help immediately.   Joel Bolomboy is not worth trading for.

In looking at every option to improve, can the Nets look to poach some Detroit Pistons? In short, the Nets should think about smaller roster pieces, look at Tobias Harris, pass on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and hope that their first rounder is for sale.

The Pistons’ season cannot be sugarcoated: 37-45 and a lottery trip was a massive disappointment. The Pistons broke through in 2016 with a 44 win year, and while the Cavs swept them in round 1, the belief of most was that the season represented a stepping stone, that the Pistons would improve within Stan Van Gundy’s offense to take the next step. 

Needless to say, that did not happen. The Pistons went backwards, and are quietly mired in salary cap hell with a dual role GM-Coach that is likely not there to initiate a rebuild. 

So, how can the Nets take advantage?

First, let’s address the elephant in the room – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Nets should not sign him. He is poised to earn over $20 million per season. That figure will kill the Nets’ flexibility, unless they deal Lopez. But if you are essentially swapping Lopez for KCP, what is the point. KCP is solid but unspectacular, and it should be noted that her Per 36 numbers largely plateaud since 2014-2015. The Nets are not far enough along in their development to begin nuking their cap with big ticket signings like this. 

Tobias Harris is a piece the Nets should look at given his more friendly 2 year deal at this point. 

On one hand with Harris, there are concerns in regard to chasing him. Unlike Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson the Pistons like Harris and thus may be reluctant to deal him and his fair deal. On the other hand, the Pistons essentially have no flexibility, with nine players taking up over $94 million in guaranteed contracts not including KCP (who I believe they will retain). They may feel they need to deal from their nucleus to open flexibility to add talent, and may see dealing Harris as a way to do that. That Henry Ellenson has thrived in his young career enhances this likelihood. 

Harris still struggles from beyond the arc, which is an issue in a motion offense like Brooklyn’s. However, he turns just 25 in July, and is clearly a good talent. His essentially 2year, $31 million contract is also affordable. 

The issue for the Nets is what Harris is worth, if the Pistons choose to deal (they likely will not). Brook and Caris would have to be non starters in a negotiation. Lin likely should be a non starter as well. Would a package headlined by RHJ get this done? It feels unlikely but is worth a phone call if the Pistons feel an urge to make a move. 

Beyond Pope and Harris, the Nets should look into Boban Marjanovic and Ellensen. Would it make sense for the Pistons to deal either? No. But much of what the Pistons have done under Van Gundy has made no sense. Maybe the Pistons would bite on dealing both players for Lin, in an effort to shore up their disastrous point guard position. That would give the Nets two younger (Boban is 28 but just came over) players to enter their program, and a mid first from last year in Ellenson. Both will be cheaper than Lin going forward, with more room to improve. The Nets would add a point guard later in their life cycle to shore up Lin’s loss – and would avoid Lin’s payday while recouping value.

There are more gems to unearth in Detroit. Reggie Bullock, at age 26, is another piece to look at for the Nets on the wing. He shoots the ball extremely well, and has real potential. He is a restricted free agent so Detroit can match, but the Pistons gave him little playing time this year, and he may fall by the wayside in their summer plans with KCP’s free agency and more complicated issues with Drummond and Jackson. 

Darrun Hilliard may be worth a similar look if the Pistons do not exercise his guarantee, although Bullock has far more tangible upside. 

Beyond the available players, the Nets should see if the Pistons, slotted to pick 12 before the lottery takes place, would deal their first rounder if the Nets dangle the 22 pick. The Pistons would be unwise to take such a gamble but may be desperate and, as a result, stupid this summer. Would Jeremy Lin and the 22 earn the 12 for the Nets? Even if the Nets have to take money like Ish Smith on to get that done, they certainly should. A deal would be unlikely but is worth exploration. 

The buck stops there, however. Drummond and Jackson are not options for the Nets with any practical import. Drummond cannot score outside of laying the ball in as a roll man, and his defense last season was flatly poor. If the Nets are to deal Brook Lopez, a deal for an even higher paid center who cannot score yet does not dominate defensively makes no sense; a deal for picks and kids is what makes sense. Jackson was brutal last year, the Pistons despised his attitude, and he is on an awful contract. No thank you there.

 The same goes for Jon Leuer on his rather large contract.  And Aron Baynes is likely another piece to stay away from. If he opts out of his player option he will seek a payday. Ish Smith also does not make sense given the Nets multiple young point guards; the same goes for Beno Udrih. Marcus Morris is on an extremely cap friendly contract, as is Stanley Johnson – both are strongly likely to stay put. Michael Gbinije is not worth any investment. 

The Denver Nuggets’ plan heading into 2017-2018 is clear: build a winner around Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets spent 2017 identifying what pieces on their roster fit with Jokic, and constructed their offense around his various skills. At the trade deadline, they made a win now move to deal a first rounder and Jusuf Nurkic, who did not fit with Jokic, for Mason Plumlee.  The move signaled a win now approach for Denver this year, and a “look to next year” approach in Portland.  A weird twist of fate, however, saw Jusuf Nurkic outperform either team’s expectations and help the Blazers into the playoffs.

The Nuggets enter the summer with eleven players under contract, and substantial flexibility to improve.  The twin goals of finding Jokic picks and capitalizing on flexibility could lead to multiple defections from this year’s roster.

So which Denver Nuggets (clearly not Jokic) can the Nets poach? Think draft picks, and young players 

Jamal Murray is a non starter, as areGary Harris and Will Barton. Murray flashed huge potential as a rookie, Barton’s contract is too good to be true, and the Nuggets love Harris, with good reason. Only Lopez creates a market in the abstract for any of the three but Brook would not fit next to Jokic. 

Kenneth Faried is an intriguing name, but a deal for him is unlikely.  He fit extremely well next to Jokic after the Nurkic deal as a cutter and finisher.  However, it should be noted that the Nuggets may not want to pay Jokic, Faried, AND Plumlee.  Plumlee is more likely to stay put than Faried — the Nuggets did not deal a first rounder and Nurkic for him to not pay up in July.  That means there is a chance with Faried.  Still, even if Faried is on the block, the Nets lack the assets to get him.  A Lin for Faried like swap works, but the Nuggets have developing guards that they may not want to supplant, and replacing Lin with a lesser pricey piece seems nonsensical. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is likely not enough to get a deal done; Caris LeVert is but the Nets would not go there (nor should they).

Danilo Gallinari is a free agent and perhaps the Nets may look his way.  However, Gallinari has been extremely injury prone, playing over 63 games in a season just twice. That makes him an old 28.  The Nets would be looking at a 4 year $80 million commitment to a player whose best years likely passed; they would be sure to regret the deal on the back end, and the deal will limit the flexibility to add the stars and developmental pieces they DO need.

If the Nuggets do not resign Gallinari, then they will likely keep Wilson Chandler.  If they do, however, they may decide that they do not want to commit $20 million per season to two non star forwards.  That could result in Chandler being available this summer.  Like Gallinari, however, he may not be worth it for the Nets: the Nets would have to PAY him in 2018 (to the tune of 4 years $80 million) or see him walk despite dealing assets to bring him in.

Beyond the splashier names, however, there are real options here for the Nets. Darrell Arthur is an underrated two way player who defends and shoots competently.  He is under contract for 2017-18, with a 2018-19 player option.  However, the Nuggets may seek to move him in a roster reshuffle; they have a glut of forwards.  Arthur would be an upgrade over RHJ or Trevor Booker.  If RHJ is not in the long range plan, a deal centered around him and Arthur would be something to consider.  Denver could see RHJ as a cheaper way to add a forward if they let a forward like Gallinari leave. I would prefer dealing RHJ for a first rounder to have a longer period of cost control and a piece to develop. But this could be an option. RHJ could grow as a forward next to Juancho Hernangomez, another piece likely staying put in Denver. 

A much better piece to look at, with regard to an RHJ trade? Malik Beasley. With the Nuggets committed to Murray and Harris, and Mudiay in the fold, minutes were very hard to come by for Beasley this season. The Nuggets may look to move him in shaping the roster around Jokic. Beasley was an elite scorer as a college freshman in 2015-2016, and he was a 37% three point shooter in the D league in 2016-2017, after being selected at 19 in the draft. Beasley is a scorer and solid shooter who has potential to develop into a competent shooting guard — one of the Nets weaker positions. 

Given the way Beasley could fit on the Nets, and the fact that he may be permanently buried in Denver behind Murray and Harris, the Nets should take an aggressive look at Beasley as a piece to grow at shooting guard. If RHJ gets it done, the Nets should take a close look at that. The Nuggets have 2 second rounders this year in the 40’s and perhaps one sweetens the pot. 

Thinking bigger, maybe the Nuggets think Beasley would be worth dealing for an immediate term roster upgrade. Along those lines, perhaps Jeremy Lin becomes the focal point of a Malik Beasley deal. If he does the Nets would certainly need more than that in return. If the Nuggets offered a swap of their lottery pick (near 13) for the Nets 22 pick, and the Nets were able to get Beasley in the package (or add RHJ for Beasley), the Nets would HAVE to consider that, to grow their base of youth. 

With further regard to draft picks, the Nuggets will have two second rounders in the mid 40’s. The Nets should see if the Nuggets, flush with young talent and of the belief lower end picks will no longer help them (that was a rationale in the Plumlee trade), would be willing to essentially give those picks away, or deal them at low cost. The Nets can sure use them. 

Looking at the roster further, the Nets should look at similar deals for Emmanuel Mudiay that they would for Beasley. Mudiay has struggled to live up to his billing but if the Nuggets want to move on, it is worth exploring and using Lin, who is 12 months from becoming very expensive, as the bait. Maybe Lin for Mudiay and a 2019 first rounder would get the job done. 

Beyond that the pickings are slim. Mike Miller could be a free agent and the Nets may see him as a veteran mentor, if Miller would like that role. Roy Hibbert and Jameer Nelson would not be fits in Brooklyn. 

The biggest Nets offseason since 2013 is getting closer and closer. Sean Marks will be tasked for looking under every rock for talent. The draft. Trades. Free agency. The globe. This series of looks at all 30 NBA rosters, and who the Nets can poach, takes a look at the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The defending champs are making another deep playoff run, and will likely focus the summer of 2017 on continuing to reload the roster. However, they will also be over the cap, and without a first rounder to trade until 2021, which limits their team building ability.  Accordingly, the questions as to the Nets and Cavs are simple. Do the Nets have pieces the Cavs would see as upgrades? And can the Nets poach and of the Cavs’ free agents that make sense.

First things first.  LeBron, Kyrie, Love, and Tristan are not going to be Nets next season. JR Smith is also likely staying put.  From there, you can at least discuss their roster.

With no first rounders to trade until 2021, the Cavs lack the juice to deal for Brook Lopez or Jeremy Lin.  Accordingly, a big move is unlikely.

The most obvious piece to consider is Kyle Korver, as he is a free agent.  Perhaps the Warriors expose his defense and the Cavaliers look elsewhere this summer.  However, they lack the cap space to replace him and traded a first round pick to get him.  That makes me believe Dan Gilbert will pony up to keep him around.  Korver is unlikely for the Nets, even if Gilbert shies away, because he likely wants to win, and will likely be hesitant to latch on with a rebuild unless he secures a ring this year.  But if he secures a ring, the Cavs likely will not let him go.  Plus, while Korver has a connection with Atkinson, it makes little sense to pay a player of his age, and Korver will want a payday if he leaves contention for rebuilding.

From there, perhaps, for belt tightening purposes, or to relieve salary congestion to do a deal with another team, the Cavs will look to dump Iman Shumpert.  If they did, the Nets would have the cap space to absorb him, at little outgoing cost.  However, a salary dump feels unlikely in the LeBron era.  In addition, given Shumpert’s pending legal issues, he may not fit the “high character” culture Sean Marks seeks to build.

If the Cavaliers get beat badly by the Warriors, they may feel Channing Frye is no longer a fit, as he is a one trick pony who shoots the 3, and does little else.  Kevin Love already does much of that at the 4.  In that instance, perhaps Frye would be salary dumped — this is highly unlikely, but the Nets could easily partake in such sweepstakes.  If they did, they would receive a competent stretch 4 on what has become a good contract.  Frye’s efficiency is inflated by being on such a great team where stars feed him easy looks, but he still has value, even on a team like Brooklyn.

The pickings then become rather slim.  Richard Jefferson is under contract; he likely stays in Cleveland or retires.  James Jones is a good locker room veteran but has been following LeBron around since 2010.  Kay Felder could be a piece Cleveland dumps, but the Nets do not need another young point guard at that end of roster level.  Derrick Williams has little to offer, as does Edy Taveres.  Deron Williams?  You have a better chance of recruiting LeBron James by hiring his primary care physician.

Couple the above with the Cavaliers outgoing second round picks until 2019, and the Nets likely cannot poach the champs for much of anything this summer.