Monthly Archives: December 2015

As you know, 2016 free agency is absolutely enormous for the Nets. They do not have to create a contender overnight. But, they must get rotation players, and step from bad to decent, as a tool to later step from decent to good.

This series will tour the league, scouring for free agents, and has already considered the Atlantic Division. We now start the central division, with the Cavaliers. With so many pricey names and contracts in the fold, Cleveland is interesting, as they may simply decide to let some of their free agents walk, which opens the door to teams like Brooklyn to grab them.

Cavaliers’ Free Agents: 

LeBron James: Let’s make this quick. LeBron will not leave the Cavaliers a second time. He is listed here because this series is listing all free agents of all teams. He has a player option only so he can opt out and resign at the new max.

Timofey Mozgov: Mozgov is a nice piece at the center position. He showed the value of size in today’s small NBA, punishing the Warriors frontline and legitimately scaring Golden State in the finals for 3.5 games. He is struggling this year, and perhaps Cleveland lets him walk, given he is looking at a $15 million a year deal. He is a good player, but makes little sense for Brooklyn with Lopez in the fold.

JR Smith: The Cavaliers have a $5.4 million team option to retain Smith. If there is one thing they lack, it is quality wing play other than LeBron. With no money to spend this summer, exercising his option makes worlds of sense and should be expected. Were Cleveland to let him walk, he is an intriguing piece. However, he is a risk on a long term deal, and is not a starter in the NBA. I would take a look at him in the 2 year, $16 million range, but nothing excessive beyond that.

Jared Cunningham: A first round pick in 2012, Cunningham has started three games for the Cavaliers this season and has made his way into the rotation. He is shooting 38.5% from 3, and competes on a nightly basis.  Again, Cleveland has a decision to make here, and Cunningham is an unrestricted free agent.

Mo Williams: Williams is a nice reserve guard. He can shoot the 3, and fits well with many teams as a role playing spot up shooter, who can handle the basketball serviceably. He has a $2.2 million player option which he may decline, but he also loves being LeBron’s teammate. If he hits the market, he is worth a look, as the Nets sorely lack competent guard play.

Matthew Dellavedova: Delly is a restricted free agent, which gives Cleveland the right to keep him, but also presents them with a tough decision given all the contracts on the books. Delly is nothing more than a reserve, but plays with pride and passion, can shoot in spurts, and is never afraid to get after it. He is a useful player, and has the type of attitude most playoff teams have. The Nets can look into his services, but I would not use too much space on him.

Anderson Varejao: The Cavaliers have a $10.4 million team option on Varejao’s deal. Given the extent of his decline, it makes little sense to exercise, but he is LeBron’s good friend, and given the Cavaliers have no cap space regardless, they cannot pay for a replacement and may exercise the option. Regardless, he is not the game changing rebounder and hustle player he was in his prime, and the Nets should look elsewhere.

Richard Jefferson: Jefferson has done a great job reinventing himself as a 3 point shooter to enable his career to continue. That is a useful skill anywhere, but at this stage in his career, Jefferson is going to sign where he believes he can win the most games, and that likely is not Brooklyn.

James Jones: Jones is a shooter who does little else. He has value for that shooting, but at this point, he really is nothing more than LeBron’s guy in Cleveland, who seems prepared to stick it out with him there.

Joe Harris: The Cavaliers have a $980,000 team option on Harris. They may not exercise it as he is yet to show he is NBA ready. The Nets should not seek out his services.

Trades With Cleveland: Jack and a trade exception (from Cleveland) to the Clippers; Sasha Kaun and second round picks to the Nets; Lance Stephenson to the Cavaliers

No trade makes sense with Cleveland. Their players are almost all properly paid, they have no interest in worsening the roster, and they have little that would intrigue the Nets from who they would deal. The Nets, here, would be dumping Jack for a young big Cleveland lacks the room to give a chance, and some second rounders, to increase their asset pool for a player that should not be part of their future.  Los Angeles dumps Stephenson, who they are desperate to get rid of, and gets to look at a rotation player to boost their chances out west. Cleveland would be getting Stephenson for nothing and gambling on LeBron’s ability to bring Lance in line. A big gamble, as even CP3 and Paul Pierce seem unable to harness his attitude.

The Philadelphia Sixers are inarguably the worst team in basketball.  Still, the Nets must explore every single avenue when building their 2016-2017 roster.  No team in the NBA, no matter how bad, is completely devoid of talent.  The Sixers have little talent, but little is greater than nothing.  Philly is largely filled with young players whom they have team options on, so how many players hit the market this summer is really up to them.  And with Jerry Colangelo now at the helm, it will be impossible to gauge their plan next summer.

Who can the Nets pry from Philly to build their roster next summer?

Free Agents:

Robert Covington: Covington is a legitimate player.  He is a good defender at the small forward position.  And while his shooting numbers are down, he can shoot the ball from deep and off the bounce.  He would look better playing with real NBA players.  With a team option of a touch over $1 million, I cannot see the Sixers letting him go.  But if he unexpectedly hits the market, the Nets should make a play for him.

TJ McConnell: McConnell has played decent point guard for the Sixers.  He is clearly not a starter, but may be a nice reserve point guard in the NBA who provides offensive flow with the right cast.  However, with a meager $875,000 team option for next year and a team option for 2017-2018, I cannot see Philly relinquishing his services right now, outside of a trade.

Jerami Grant: Grant is not as good as Covington, but he can defend.  However, he is limited offensively, and is close to but not quite rotation caliber.  As is the theme, the Sixers have a $980,000 team option for his services they probably will exercise, but the Nets should look into his services should Philly let him go.

Isaiah Canaan: Canaan was misplaced early as the Sixers’ starting point guard, which is beyond his capabilities.  He is just not good enough to receive steady minutes, but has one NBA skill: he can shoot the 3.  He may be worth a look as an end of the bench piece who can get minutes on nights where he is hot.  A restricted free agent, I expect the Sixers to renounce him rather than offer a qualifying offer, thus making him unrestricted (like the Nets did with Mirza last summer).

Tony Wroten Jr.: Wroten is a competent, dribble drive reserve point guard . . . if you can live with a point guard who cannot shoot and struggles defensively.  That is, he is a decent reserve, at most: arguably a slightly more established, 6’6’’ Shane Larkin who will get paid more than Larkin.  He is a restricted free agent, but I expect him to be renounced.  Still, whether he helps the Nets is an open question, especially given his ACL tear.

Hollis Thompson: In limited time, Thompson has shown that he can shoot the 3, if nothing else.  The Sixers have a $1 million team option to retain him which they may exercise.  Thompson lost his starting role to Nik Stauskas – he’s not exactly solving problems in Brooklyn.  But I prefer him near the end of my bench over a grizzled veteran like Wayne Ellington.

Kendall Marshall:  Marshall is still young, but has done nothing and is now in his fourth season, and also recovering from a torn ACL.  He was fairly productive in 2013-2014 with the Lakers but has struggled, and even failed to thrive Jason Kidd despite Kidd, who likes big guards, liking his skill set and handpicking him.  Marshal has an approximate $2 million team option I expect the Sixers to decline, but I do not see the Nets having any interest.

Jakarr Sampson: Sampson is a shooting guard who cannot shoot.  He quickly lost his starting role to Nik Stauskas.  The Sixers have a $980,000 team option but even if they decline it, the Nets should not show any interest.

Christian Wood: Wood is a young big who can barely get minutes for the lowly Sixers.  The Nets should not be interested in his services, and he may be out of the league soon.

Trades

The Sixers are not looking to add veterans.  That makes dealing with the Sixers right now tough for Brooklyn.  They have no use for Joe Johnson.  They have no use for Jarrett Jack.  With the Nets seeking picks and Philadelphia hoarding them, there just isn’t much to see here.

Perhaps a Jarrett Jack for Carl Landry deal, given Landry is on Philadelphia’s 2016-2017 books, makes sense.  But the Nets would need at least one second rounder for that deal to make sense.  And Philly is not spending money right now, so opening cap space in exchange for books seems wasteful for them.

As the Nets’ all important 2016 offseason approaches, they will be taking a detailed look at free agents across the league.

Today, we look at the Knicks’ free agents, and the Nets options as to who they can obtain from the Knicks’ roster.

Langston Galloway: Galloway has emerged into a very fine reserve guard for the Knicks.  He shoots 45% from 3, and is a nice playmaker who couples those skills with a solid defensive acumen. Galloway is a restricted free agent, the Knicks have early Bird Rights, and given his impressive start to the season, they very may well take advantage of that and bring him back. However, with Jerian Grant in the fold, the Knicks may decide they need to find a starter, and price themselves out of Galloway. Call it unlikely, but if that occurs, the Nets should look into his services.

Arron Afflalo: Afflalo is a solid shooting guard, but is not as good as his reputation indicates.  He has a reputation as a good defender, but has fallen off significantly on that end. However, he is shooting a strong 38.9% from 3, which is in line with his career averages, and can be an asset on the wing for a team.  Afflalo has a player option of $8 million, played with Melo in Denver, and says he wants to retire a Knick. It seems likely he exercises his player option, or resigns with the Knicks.

Kevin Seraphin: In limited minutes, Seraphin has been a nice reserve big for the Knicks.  He can score the basketball and is decent defensively.  The Knicks have some free agents like Seraphin who have been productive this season.  Still, they want to add significantly to the roster in 2016, and cannot keep every free agent. Seraphin is worth a look.

Lance Thomas: It has been nice to see Thomas develop into a legitimate reserve wing and smallball 4.  Thomas is athletic, and defends well for the Knicks.  The Knicks like him, and will likely try to keep him this summer.  If they do not, the Nets should target him as a potential low cost addition to the roster.

Cleanthony Early: Early was a second round pick of the Knicks in 2014, who has yet to produce.  The Nets have enough fringe youth like Early around the roster.

Derrick Williams: Williams simply hasn’t panned out, and is now in his 5th year in the NBA.  He has a $4.6 million player option with the Knicks that, given his struggles, he should exercise.  The Nets should pass here.

Sasha Vujacic: Vujacic has been a nice veteran presence for Kristaps Porzingis, Jerian Grant, and the Knicks’ other young players. In that regard, he can help the Nets as a veteran mentor to their younger players if the Knicks do not keep him. However, he has no on court value, and should not be expected to produce in any way.

Louis Amundson: Amundson is a fringe NBA player, and the definition of a journeyman.  The Nets should pass on him.

Trades with the Knicks: 

-Jack, Karasev, and Ellington for Kyle O’Quinn, Jose Calderon, and two second round picks: This is about the only trade that makes sense involving these teams.  For the Nets, they relinquish some of their cap space, but turn Jack into assets, and add O’Quinn to the roster, a nice young big.  For the Knicks, they open more future flexibility while trading one piece definitely not in their plans, and one who may not be.

While just how much better the Nets are playing is debatable, it is evident that the Nets are a better team now, at 5-13, than when they began 2015-2016 at 0-7.  Alas, the Nets are clearly not satisfied with their current roster (how could they be), and will try to improve next summer.

But perhaps they may try even sooner.  Mike Mazzeo of ESPN reported that the Nets have been gauging trade interest in Bojan Bogdanovic: https://twitter.com/MazzESPN/status/671786426283913216

Whether the Nets should deal Bogdanovic is an open question.  On one hand, Bogdanovic shot 48.8% from 3 in April last year, and 52.6% overall.  He looked to be taking significant strides, and one can easily envision him thriving next to a point guard who breaks down defenses, as a weakside shooter and playmaker off the bounce.  Given Bogdanovic makes just $3.6 million (approximately) in 2016-2017, if he even comes close to performing the way he did to close 2014-2015, he is well worth that money.  For that matter, even if he plays the way he is now, he is not a bad contract, on a 1 year, $3.6 million deal expiring in 2017.  To dump him now may be shortsighted, in light of what he has shown he can become, which is a low end starter or strong sixth man off the bench.

On the other hand, Bogdanovic is already one season and a quarter into his NBA career, and he is 26 years old, having been drafted in 2011 and having played professionally overseas.  Is it possible we have seen the best of him, or something close to that? If so, what we have seen is a streaky shooter, who can blow up on occasion but has a tendency to float through games, and a below average defender who is slow for his position.

There is no reason to salary dump Bogdanovic.  But if the Nets can get a top 15-25 pick for him, or a solid roster piece, they have to at least mull it over.

Which brings up the subject of Ty Lawson, who the Rockets may look to move, according to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-almost-trade-season-in-the-nba-2/.

The fit between Lawson and Brooklyn may make sense, if Houston decides to move on.  Many rosters are set at point guard, and Lawson makes $12.4 million in 2015-2016.  The Nets are one of few teams who have a need at point guard that he can fill.  When at his best, Lawson is a speedy point guard, who gets in the lane and defends on the other end.

But Lawson has been in continuous trouble with the law since the start of the 2014-2015 season.  The Nuggets could not wait to dump him. His play has suffered. And despite Houston seeing him as a piece that could help them take the next step, he has further regressed, the Rockets have regressed, and he finds himself on the bench behind Jason Terry. Shooting 33.6%, he’s flat out bad right now.  And the longer his poor play lasts, at 28 going on 29 and heavily reliant on speed, the more concern builds that he will never again be the dynamic player he was two years ago.

Still, if the Nets can get him cheaply, he is worth a look.  He may even be worth dealing Bogdanovic, given his established pedigree as a rotation player, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson’s emergence as a starting wing, and the reality that Bojan is unlikely to start for the 2016-2017 Nets, if they target a wing in free agency.

However, there are multiple obstacles to making a deal involving Bogdanovic and Lawson happen:

Fitting Lawson’s Contract on the Nets’ Books

Lawson makes approximately $12.4 million this season, and the CBA requires that roughly equivalent money be exchanged in deals.  Were Lawson for Bogdanovic offered straight up, the Nets would need to send a touch over $8 million more in player salary money to get a deal done. Bogdanovic is the Nets’ fifth highest paid player, so unless the Rockets were to take on 6 players making less than him (a remote possibility), the Nets would have to deal Lopez or Thad (which makes no sense), Joe Johnson, or Jarrett Jack, to facilitate the deal. Given the size of Joe’s salary, taking him on would require Houston to part with Corey Brewer or Trevor Ariza, and a young player or two of their own, which makes little sense for them.

That leaves the Nets with dealing Jack and a smaller deal (perhaps Karasev) to get the deal done, but that exposes other issues.  First, Jack has been better than Lawson this season — that is how far Lawson has fallen. Second, the Rockets are intense applicants of advanced stats principles, and those principles hate inefficient, high volume guards who prefer shooting in the midrange — in other words, Jack. Jack is literally the antithesis of what the Rockets are building, so acquiring Lawson would likely necessitate involving a third team.

Perhaps something like this, regarding multiple teams, would work, but whenever you involve multiple teams, deals can get complicated – http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=oxpvxg5

Lawson’s Contract Creates No Reason For Houston to Sell Low

Given Lawson’s struggles it is tempting to wonder if the Rockets will sell low on his services. But here is the thing: they planned for this scenario. As part of the Rockets acquiring Lawson, they convinced him to agree to waive his $13.2 player option for 2016-2017, and convert it into a team option.  By doing that the Rockets covered themselves for the exact scenario they are in, as they can cut bait on Lawson this summer assuming things continue to go south.  With that, there is no reason for the Rockets to undersell on Lawson or give up any picks or kids to shed him — their best shot is to hope his game resurges, and then just cut him in the summer if hit does not.  That complicates Brooklyn’s potential pursuit of Ty.

Lawson’s 2016-2017 Salary

Lawson may have already played himself out of the $13.2 million team option on the books for next season.  Regardless, given his pedigree and the rising cap, if he were to be dealt to the Nets and return to form, he will likely earn a $10-12 million payday, and perhaps more. Bojan, however, will make less than one third of Lawson, maybe less than one quarter, at $3.6 million per.  Is Lawson a player that justifies that difference in payment?  If the Nets decide he is not and choose not to keep him, then they lost a potential rotation player for nothing.

The Nets should not deal for Lawson unless they truly believe they want to pay him in the 3 year, $30 million to 4 year, $50 million range.

Should the Nets do that?